136
FXUS61 KBGM 031747
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH POPS
INCREASED FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AROUND CENTRAL NY. THE
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
60S THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, THEN PERHAPS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID-70S FOR HIGHS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SOLID CLOUD COVER
FINALLY SCATTERS OUT. WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WERE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL; SOME STRATUS CLOUDS COULD ALSO DEVELOP
OVER NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLOUDS GIVEWAY TO MORE LATE DAY SUNSHINE, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG TO FORM TONIGHT.
2) DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA, AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND
WARM, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY.
3) A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE, HUMIDITY AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF STRATUS CLOUDS
LINGERING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NY AND MUCH OF NE PA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES SHOW DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE
REGION IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME. RADAR SHOWS
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS, SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NY. BASED ON THESE TRENDS, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND POPS THROUGH 3-5 PM, AND LOWERED EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE SKIES WILL FINALLY BECOME BROKEN TO
SCATTERED WITH SOME LATE DAY SUN; AGAIN MAINLY AFTER 3-5 PM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.
NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DROPPING BELOW 10 MPH
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG TO
FORM, LINGERING INTO EARLY/MID MORNING TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE QUITE COOL, IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S AREAWIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY, WITH PWATS
DROPPING TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S FOR THE
AFTERNOON. A 1020MB HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY, ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS 500MB HEIGHTS REACH
590DM. AFTER THE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AND DISSIPATES, EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID-80S. SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS ALONG THE EAST COAST
HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT AND SEASONABLE LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
AS THE SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH. PWATS INCREASE GRADUALLY UP TO AROUND 1 INCH AGAIN BY
LATE AFTERNOON, AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP AS DEW
POINTS RECOVER INTO THE 60S. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NE PA AND THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. OVERALL, MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH. IT WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN, AND A LITTLE MORE
HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S (EXCEPT UPPER 80S FOR THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SYRACUSE METRO AREA).
KEY MESSAGE 3...
DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH PWATS
LIKELY HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND SOME
DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED, THIS WILL CREATE QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY. 12Z GFS IS SHOWING 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AT
THE SAME TIME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 20-30 KTS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRENGTHENING,
OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH OF A LIFTING MECHANISM, AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG
FRONTAL PASSAGES ON THURSDAY. IT SEEMS MINOR DISTURBANCES AND
SHORTWAVES COULD RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WESTERN PA. WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE 2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL AND SURFACE BASED CAPE POTENTIALLY 2000-3000 J/KG EVEN
A SMALL TRIGGER COULD INITIATE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ENSEMBLE BLEND (NBM) HAS 12 HOUR POPS OF 75-85
PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND WAS INCLINED TO KEEP THIS DUE TO
THE ABOVE NOTED SETUP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
NO CAP IN PLACE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LONG DEEP CAPE PROFILES AND
POTENTIALLY HIGH DCAPE VALUES. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. CURRENT MODEL FORECAST
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW TO MID-80S FOR HIGHS.
THE SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR FOR FRIDAY, BUT IF THE 12Z GFS IS
CORRECT THERE WOULD ACTUALLY BE MORE TROUGHING PUSHING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE MORE LIFT. OVERALL, THE EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT THE SETUP DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME THE STORMS. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME AND SPECIFICS
BECOME MORE CLEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINS STEADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS AND RETREATS EASTWARD. OVERALL,
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. WITHOUT A STRONG FRONT OR LIFTING MECHANISM CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OR T'STORMS FADE BACK TO ISOLATED OR SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN STEADY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AT SYR, RME, ITH AND BGM THIS
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
20-22Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY REACH VFR AFTER
00Z BEFORE FOG DEVELOPS TONIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT SYR.
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS. BY THE
EVENING, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER; ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...BTL/BJT
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