345
FXUS61 KBGM 032347
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
747 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, SKIES ARE NOW CLEARING OUT. WIDESPREAD
VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL; SOME STRATUS CLOUDS COULD ALSO
DEVELOP OVER NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD
VALLEY FOG TO FORM TONIGHT.
2) DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA, AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND
WARM, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY.
3) A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE, HUMIDITY AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SKIES ARE CLEARING AS EXPECTED AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.
NW WINDS WILL BE DROPPING BELOW 10 MPH OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG TO FORM, LINGERING
INTO EARLY OR MID MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COOL, IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S AREAWIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY, WITH PWATS
DROPPING TO NEAR 0.50 INCHES AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S FOR THE
AFTERNOON. A 1020MB HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY, ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS 500MB HEIGHTS REACH
590DM. AFTER THE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AND DISSIPATES, EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID-80S. SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS ALONG THE EAST COAST
HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME STRATUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT AND SEASONABLE LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
AS THE SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH. PWATS INCREASE GRADUALLY UP TO AROUND 1 INCH AGAIN BY
LATE AFTERNOON, AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP AS DEW
POINTS RECOVER INTO THE 60S. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NE PA AND THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. OVERALL, MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH. IT WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN, AND A LITTLE MORE
HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S (EXCEPT UPPER 80S FOR THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SYRACUSE METRO AREA).
KEY MESSAGE 3...
DEEP MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH PWATS
LIKELY HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND SOME
DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED, THIS WILL CREATE QUITE A BIT OF
INSTABILITY. 12Z GFS IS SHOWING 1500-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AT
THE SAME TIME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 20-30 KTS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRENGTHENING,
OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH OF A LIFTING MECHANISM, AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG
FRONTAL PASSAGES ON THURSDAY. IT SEEMS MINOR DISTURBANCES AND
SHORTWAVES COULD RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WESTERN PA. WITH PWATS PROGGED TO BE 2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL AND SURFACE BASED CAPE POTENTIALLY 2000-3000 J/KG EVEN
A SMALL TRIGGER COULD INITIATE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ENSEMBLE BLEND (NBM) HAS 12 HOUR POPS OF 75-85
PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND WAS INCLINED TO KEEP THIS DUE TO
THE ABOVE NOTED SETUP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
NO CAP IN PLACE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LONG DEEP CAPE PROFILES AND
POTENTIALLY HIGH DCAPE VALUES. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. CURRENT MODEL FORECAST
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW TO MID-80S FOR HIGHS.
THE SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR FOR FRIDAY, BUT IF THE 12Z GFS IS
CORRECT THERE WOULD ACTUALLY BE MORE TROUGHING PUSHING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE MORE LIFT. OVERALL, THE EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT THE SETUP DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME THE STORMS. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME AND SPECIFICS
BECOME MORE CLEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINS STEADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE OFFSHORE BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS AND RETREATS EASTWARD. OVERALL,
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. WITHOUT A STRONG FRONT OR LIFTING MECHANISM CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OR T'STORMS FADE BACK TO ISOLATED OR SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN STEADY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SKIES ARE CLEARING, WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS
AT SUNSET. EXPECTED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 05-08Z TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE HIGHEST FOG
POTENTIAL AT ELM, AND ALSO NEAR RME IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
OTHERWISE, AVP, ITH AND BGM COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL, MAINLY
MVFR FOG OR MIST TOWARD DAYBREAK; CAN'T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF,
TEMPO IFR VSBYS AT ITH AND BGM BETWEEN ABOUT 09-12Z TUESDAY.
THE FOG AND MIST WILL BURN OFF, AND DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z
TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WIND WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING, BECOMING LESS THAN 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR; POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG AT ELM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER; ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...BJT/MJM
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