440
FXUS61 KBGM 050436
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1236 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY; OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR AFTERNOON
STORMS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS THE BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES A LITTLE WESTWARD IN
THE ATLANTIC, THIS WILL PREP THE SET-UP FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK'S WEATHER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE BERMUDA
HIGH COULD PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTH, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND WEAK STORMS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF NE PA GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. FOR THE DAYTIME, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
UPPER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, A LONGWAVE TROUGH DRAPED OVER CANADA WILL
SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR SMALL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE COURSE OF A FEW DAYS
SPANNING FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS SET-UP, THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE STRENGTHENED BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA, WITH PWATS
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
AS WELL AS AMPLE INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY, WHERE
MLCAPE VALUES RISING INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE FOR THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECASTED TO BE
READILY AVAILABLE ON THURSDAY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT, TWO
INGREDIENTS MAY HINDER THE ABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP.
SHEAR IS FORECASTED IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE, AND THIS PATTERN
LACKS A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ONE TIMEFRAME THAT WE'RE MONITORING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WHICH WOULD BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT, A
MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
WHICH COULD BE THE FORCING NECESSARY TO SPARK OFF SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. CURRENTLY, A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECASTED OVER OUR AREA FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS, AS THIS PATTERN
LACKS SUPPORT FOR THE RISK OF OTHER SEVERE THREATS.
GOING INTO FRIDAY, A SLOW-MOVING, QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
APPROACHES, BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUITE A BIT AS IT COMES
INTO THE AREA. THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE SHOWERY WITH CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS AS THE TROUGH IN CANADA DEEPENS AND PROPAGATES
EASTWARD A BIT MORE, CONTINUING TO PUSH SHORTWAVES INTO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES INCREASING INTO THE 90S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CANADA CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
PROVIDING A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH SOME EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES THAT BRING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON STORMS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. VALLEY FOG IS
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR TO
LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ELM DUE TO FOG. THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE AT RME AND BGM, THOUGH TEMPO GROUPS WERE ADDED FOR
FOG AND RESTRICTIONS BASED ON LAST NIGHT'S CONDITIONS. THE SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
TOMORROW BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE SHOWERS
AT THIS TIME. IT WAS MENTIONED IN THE LAST UPDATE THAT MVFR
CEILINGS MAY SNEAK INTO AVP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS CONDITIONS VFR, SO OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD THE
MAJORITY WITH THIS UPDATE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE CALM,
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. TOMORROW, WINDS WILL SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND SOME GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ITH AND BGM.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...REPEAT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VFR CEILINGS CONSISTENTLY AT OR BELOW FL050
WITH INTERMITTENT WORSE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
RAIN/STORMS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...BTL
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