021
FXUS61 KBGM 051755
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
155 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUE TO ADJUST DEWPOINTS FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKE A RETURN STARTING THURSDAY,
CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. INCREASING HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW INCREASES BEHIND A PASSING SFC HIGH AND WITH A BERMUDA
HIGH OFF THE SE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SOME FROM VALUES
EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WEAK PASSING
DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON THURSDAY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 1.75"+ STARTING
TONIGHT. THE FIRST OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF (IF NOT
ALL OF) THE AREA IS UNDER A 'MARGINAL RISK' ON THURSDAY FROM BOTH
SPC AND WPC FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF,
RESPECTIVELY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY LESS THAN FAVORABLE SHEAR VALUES OF SUB 30
KTS. INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1,500-2,000 J/KG OF CAPE, WILL HELP
WITH SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PASS OVER THE AREA, BUT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED.
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WEAKENING AS IT
TRACKS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE MOISTURE LADEN ATMOSPHERE STILL IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION AND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE
NEWER GUIDANCE STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, CAUSING SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AN INCOMING LARGER
TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT OUT OF THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY. A 'MARGINAL RISK' FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION.
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL START
TO INCREASE HEAT INDEX VALUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN FOR AREAS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS WILL
BE THE FAR SOUTHERN PA COUNTIES. BUT EVEN FOR THESE AREAS, ONLY A
SMALL PORTION OF THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL REACH
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH SOME OF THE LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S AT TIMES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MAINLY ZONAL STARTING SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND SFC LOWS PASSING ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN
LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY, CONTINUING INTO THE WORK WEEK. WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING
WITH LINGERING ALTOCUMULUS AOA FL100 TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CLOUD DECKS. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SATURATES
TONIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF LATE NIGHT MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KELM-KBGM...INCLUDING KAVP. CONFIDENCE IN
IFR WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH AT KELM. EXPECTING ANY LOWER CEILINGS TO
LIFT AFTER 12Z THURSDAY WITH CCLS FORMING BASES AT FL030-040. THERE
IS A SMALL RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND
AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE MUCH TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WITH REPEATING TIMES OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VFR CEILINGS CONSISTENTLY
AT OR BELOW FL050 WITH INTERMITTENT WORSE CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN/STORMS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SJW
AVIATION...JAB
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