160
FXUS61 KBGM 061021
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
621 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUE TO ADJUST DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY, OTHERWISE,
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE BUT
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE.
2) ACTIVE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP TO ALLOW A PARADE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO NEXT
WEEK.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING AS SSW WINDS PUSH
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S WILL ALLOW CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB INTO THE 1500-2000
J/KG RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BULK SHEAR
VALUES LOOK WEAK, BUT ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINALLY
ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS/LINEAR SEGMENTS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES WHERE SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER. THESE STORMS SHOULD FIZZLE OUT BY THE MID-
EVENING HOURS. TO GO ALONG WITH THE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT,
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PWATS CLIMB TO THE 2IN RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WE ARE NOT SEEING MUCH THREAT FOR TRAINING
OR VERY SLOW MOVING STORMS, BUT WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS, FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS PRETTY LOW AND A 30 MIN PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER,
NEPA AND CATSKILLS.
FRIDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THAT SHOULD KICK OFF
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOWER FOR FRIDAY AS BULK
SHEAR IS IN THE LOW 20KTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CAPE IN THE 1000-1500
J/KG, BUT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AS THE MAIN THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
WITH THE INCREASED HUMIDITY, THE HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S IN OUR VALLEYS BOTH AFTERNOONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT PROGGED TO CHANGE MUCH THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH SITTING OUT NEAR BERMUDA,
KEEPING OUR WINDS MOSTLY SSW WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS OUT WEST
AND A BROAD TROUGH SITS OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THE POSITIONING OF
THESE FEATURES PUTS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD WITH A CAVALCADE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN. THIS KEEPS RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT SEVERE CHANCES LOOK
LOW AS THE PARAMETERS ARE CURRENTLY LACKING FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK. ISOLATED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH PWATS LOOK TO FALL BELOW 1.5IN BY SATURDAY SO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. BUT GIVEN OUR LOW FF
GUIDANCE NUMBERS, A HEAVY DOWNPOUR COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING
ISSUES.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR TO FUEL ALT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL AROUND
12 TO 14Z FOR ELM, BGM, AND AVP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE DOES
NOT HAVE MUCH FOR RESTRICTIONS, SO CONDITIONS WERE KEPT AT VFR
FROM 18Z ONWARD, THOUGH RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWER OR STORM THAT PASSES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, THOUGH COULD BECOME GUSTY
WITHIN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UNSETTLED WITH REPEATING TIMES
OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...KL
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