171
FXUS61 KBGM 061825
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
225 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND FORECAST
MODELS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW STORMS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
2) A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
3) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE AREA REMAINS LOCKED IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN
THE OFFSHORE RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND, PUSHING THE RIDGE FURTHER OFFSHORE. A WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA, WITH PWATS AROUND
1.9 INCHES TODAY, 1.8 INCHES FRIDAY AND FALLING SLIGHTLY TO 1.6
INCHES ON SATURDAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, LOCALLY MID 70S, THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DUE TO THE DAY TIME
HEATING. MLCAPE IS PROGGED TO BE 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SHEAR WILL BE 20-30
KTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH
THESE STORMS. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE FORCING HEADING INTO THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES, THIS
MAY ALSO HELP TO BETTER ORGANIZE THE CONVECTION AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 80S, WITH A FEW AREAS AROUND
90 IN THE URBAN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES COULD REACH THE LOW
TO MID-90S THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS THAT SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND
MISS OUT ON THE SHOWERS/STORMS. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR
COVERAGE OF MID 90S HEAT INDICES TO ISSUE ANY HEAT ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, EXCEPT MID
90S IN THE WYOMING VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY, IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MOST OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SWINGS A
FRONT THROUGH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A
DRIER AIR MASS IN BEHIND IT. THE 12Z NAM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER,
WITH A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES WHICH BRINGS SUNNY SKIES,
FALLING DEW POINTS AND DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S, WITH STEADY NW WINDS
BETWEEN 6-12 MPH EXPECTED. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT
AND LESS HUMID, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER THE BRIEF, FLAT RIDGE EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT, THE NEXT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE, WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 60S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS DISTURBANCE ROLLS THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WARM UP A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SUNDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW THEN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
A DEEPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO OUR AREA AT TIMES. TUESDAY
HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH CHANCES
FADING A BIT BY WEDNESDAY IF CURRENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS HOLD. TEMPERATURES START A GRADUAL COOLING TREND TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK; FALLING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE
LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST. A DEEPER, MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK;
THIS COULD ACT TO INCREASE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH BRINING
EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY AFFECTING AIRPORT
OPERATIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS WHICH HAVE BEEN
ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS USING TEMPO OR PROB30
GROUPS DEPENDING ON CONFIDENCE. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE OR PASS
EAST OF THE REGION BETWEEN 22Z-00Z. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
IFR-LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH A
RISK OF FOG MAINLY ALONG THE KELM-KITH-KBGM CORRIDOR WITH
LIGHTER FOG ELSEWHERE. GUIDANCE HIT SIMILAR CONDITIONS LAST
NIGHT FAIRLY HARD WHICH DID NOT MATERIALIZE. CONFIDENCE IS
BETTER FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES THAN A LOW CEILING BLANKET AND
HAVE HINTED AT THIS POSSIBILITY. KELM HAS A HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF CRASHING INTO AIRPORT MINIMUM FOG RESTRICTIONS. FOG/CLOUDS
LIFT TO VFR WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF DIURNAL CUMULUS RETURNING
AGAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WITH REPEATING TIMES
OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...JAB/KL
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