835
FXUS61 KBGM 070407
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1207 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL
TRENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
2) AFTER QUIET WEATHER ON SUNDAY, AN ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH PUSHING WARM HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER CANADA SLINGING SHORTWAVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
ON FRIDAY, HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT WITH POCKETS OF 1500-2000
J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER
WITH 10-25KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED. THE TRIGGER FOR THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS FEATURE DOWN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WITH IT ARRIVING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CAMS
HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THIS AND ARE SHOWING PRECIP INITIATION STARTING
AROUND MID AFTERNOON, LASTING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND NEPA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. BASED ON THE CURRENT INGREDIENTS FORECAST, IT SEEMS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL FROM A CELL THAT IS ABLE TO TAP INTO
A POCKET OF HIGHER CAPE AND HAVE A COLLAPSING CORE CAUSE A
MICROBURST.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS, ALLOWING FOR A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
SATURATED FROM THE RECENT RAINS. WPC HAS PUT OUR ENTIRE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA,
KICKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS VERY LOW AS BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE EVEN WEAKER AND CAPE A LITTLE WEAKER. HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS
SATURATED BY RECENT RAINS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM HEAT AND RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL
QUITE NICE OUTSIDE.
A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE STARTING AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BRING CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL BE TRENDING LOWER. THE BERMUDA HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF AS MORE ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
END THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING THE HIGHER HUMIDITY INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW FOR CANADIAN AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE PATTERN, KICKING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WITH A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME DURING THE END OF THE WEEK, BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE,
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER THE BRIEF, FLAT RIDGE EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT, THE NEXT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE, WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 60S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS DISTURBANCE ROLLS THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WARM UP A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SUNDAY. THE OVERALL
FLOW THEN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
A DEEPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO OUR AREA AT TIMES. TUESDAY
HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH CHANCES
FADING A BIT BY WEDNESDAY IF CURRENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS HOLD. TEMPERATURES START A GRADUAL COOLING TREND TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK; FALLING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE
LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST. A DEEPER, MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK;
THIS COULD ACT TO INCREASE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH BRINING
EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOME
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND EAST OF
I-81. WITH THE HUMID CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS AT
ELM, WHERE AROUND 0.3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RAIN HAS ALSO DROPPED TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S, SO WE ARE NOT GOING TO NEED MUCH COOLING TO GET
THE TEMP TO HIT THE DEWPOINT. THESE FIGURES POINT TO A STRONG
CASE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WENT A LITTLE EARLIER THAN GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED AND INTRODUCED TEMPO FOG FROM 05-07Z. THIS COULD BE A
LITTLE LATE AND FOG MAY START FORMING AROUND 04Z, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN PUSHING FOG UP THAT EARLY WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF. FOG SHOULD SETTLE IN BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM AND LAST INTO
THE MORNING HOURS.
ITH ALSO HAD SOME RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS BEHAVING LIKE ELM, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP HERE
TONIGHT AS WELL. BGM DID NOT SEE RAIN TODAY, BUT WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY AND CALM WINDS EXPECTED, FOG SHOULD FORM FOR A FEW
HOURS TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME HINTS FOR FOG AT AVP,
BUT WITH NO RAIN TODAY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IFR IN THE TAFS. TEMPO MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
SYR AND RME SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WITH REPEATING TIMES
OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...JTC
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