045
FXUS61 KBGM 071019
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
619 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL
TRENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
2) AFTER QUIET WEATHER ON SUNDAY, AN ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH PUSHING WARM HUMID AIR INTO THE
REGION AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER CANADA SLINGING SHORTWAVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
ON FRIDAY, HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT WITH POCKETS OF 1500-2000
J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER
WITH 10-25KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED. THE TRIGGER FOR THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS FEATURE DOWN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WITH IT ARRIVING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CAMS
HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THIS AND ARE SHOWING PRECIP INITIATION STARTING
AROUND MID AFTERNOON, LASTING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND NEPA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. BASED ON THE CURRENT INGREDIENTS FORECAST, IT SEEMS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL FROM A CELL THAT IS ABLE TO TAP INTO
A POCKET OF HIGHER CAPE AND HAVE A COLLAPSING CORE CAUSE A
MICROBURST.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS, ALLOWING FOR A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
SATURATED FROM THE RECENT RAINS. WPC HAS PUT OUR ENTIRE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA,
KICKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS VERY LOW AS BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE EVEN WEAKER AND CAPE A LITTLE WEAKER. HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS
SATURATED BY RECENT RAINS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM HEAT AND RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL
QUITE NICE OUTSIDE.
A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE STARTING AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BRING CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL BE TRENDING LOWER. THE BERMUDA HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF AS MORE ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
END THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING THE HIGHER HUMIDITY INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW FOR CANADIAN AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE PATTERN, KICKING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WITH A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME DURING THE END OF THE WEEK, BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE,
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CURRENT VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO, WITH EFFECTED TERMINALS BGM, ELM, AND ITH RETURNING TO
VFR. LATER THIS AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS INCREASE, AND A LINE FOR SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED. FOR
NOW, A GROUP FOR STORMS AS BEEN LEFT OUT AS IT'S TOO UNCERTAIN
FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT. ANY NON-STORM SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS; ANY STORM THAT WERE TO IMPACT A
TERMINAL MAY BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WITH REPEATING TIMES
OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...KL
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