371
FXUS61 KBGM 071752
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
152 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING THIS
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAT AND HUMIDITY
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
2) AFTER QUIET WEATHER ON SUNDAY, AN ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. CAPE HAS REALLY
INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR, WITH AREAS ACROSS NEPA INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER ALREADY SEEING VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH MOST OF
THE CIN MIXED OUT. TO GO ALONG WITH THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30KTS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL SUPPORT
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAIN THREATS
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN CAUSING INSTANCES OF
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE CROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY INTO THE CATSKILLS
WHERE HIGHER CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES COULD PRODUCE SOME BETTER
CLUSTER ORGANIZATION. STORMS SHOULD STICK AROUND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS, ALLOWING FOR A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
SATURATED FROM THE RECENT RAINS. PWATS REMAIN UNDER 2IN BUT WITH
THE EARLY STORMS AND EXPECTED RAIN AND STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, FLASH FLOODING RISKS WILL CONTINUE.
ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA,
KICKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS VERY LOW AS BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE WEAK AND CAPE A LOWER THAN TODAY. HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS
SATURATED BY RECENT RAINS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
***THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
SINCE THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE, THUS, THE DISCUSSION REMAINS
UNCHANGED.***
A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM HEAT AND RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL
QUITE NICE OUTSIDE.
A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE STARTING AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BRING CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL BE TRENDING LOWER. THE BERMUDA HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF AS MORE ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
END THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING THE HIGHER HUMIDITY INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW FOR CANADIAN AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH
THE PATTERN, KICKING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WITH A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME DURING THE END OF THE WEEK, BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE,
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WHERE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOWERING
VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES AND CIGS TO MVFR/IFR BRIEFLY. BEST TIMING FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GREATEST SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL
EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR TO START THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT
CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARD MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP DOWN TO IFR AND BELOW. FOG IN
THE USUAL AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL,
LOWERING CIGS/VSBY.
FOR SATURDAY, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. MAINLY DRY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY, UNSETTLED WITH REPEATING TIMES OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...SJW
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