824
FXUS61 KBGM 181801
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
201 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH DRY, SUNNY CONDITIONS.
2) A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY DRY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH FOG QUICKLY BURNING OFF. PRIOR TO THE NEXT BATCH OF
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY, FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT.
DESPITE BLUE SKIES AND SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE NEXT ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
SHOWERS WILL FALL APART AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOUTHERN AREAS OF
THE REGION SEE NO RAIN AT ALL. DESPITE THE EARLY ARRIVAL AND SUNNY
SKIES IN THE MORNING, MODELS HAVE ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY FOR
THE REGION WITH 250-750 J/KG CAPE. STRONG MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL
ENHANCE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES TO 30 TO 50 KTS. AS USUAL, THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL. SO WHILE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THERE
WILL BE STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE FRONT APPEARS TO TRENDING SLOWER WITH VARIOUS MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER FOR
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NEPA
THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN CONTROL THOUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE HAVE A DEEPENING TROUGH WITH A STACKED LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE LOW PLACEMENT AND
THAT WILL IMPACT HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. THIS FAR
OUT, THE GFS/AIGFS ARE OUTLIERS WITH THE SYSTEM MORE NORTH AND MUCH
QUICKER WITH ITS DEPARTURE. CURRENTLY WE KEEP SOME SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S AND 60S, THOUGH 40S WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR
THE TYPICALLY COOL SPOTS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WITH DRY AIR. ELM AND
POTENTIALLY RME MAY SEE SOME IFR TO LIFR FOG TONIGHT AFTER 9Z
TO 10Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT NOT HIGH THAT THE FOG WILL SETTLE IN
COMPLETELY SO TEMPOS WERE USED. RME WAS KEPT ABOVE IFR JUST IN
CASE FOG STAYS JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL AND NEVER LEADS TO
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 13Z.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS, FOG IN MORNINGS AT ELM.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MWG
AVIATION...AJG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page