228
FXUS61 KBGM 182347
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
747 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
2) HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ACTIVE
WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUR OF THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON AS MORNING FOG
AND CLOUDS ALLOWED SURFACE HEATING TO GET GOING A LITTLE LATER
THAN NORMAL, LOWERING THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR VALLEYS. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE
EASTERN US WITH 2 DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE PATTERN;
ONE MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TURNING NE INTO CANADA, AND
THE OTHER ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE ENERGY
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NE AND INTO
CANADA, SO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS WNY IN THE MORNING
SHOULD TAPER DOWN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CNY IN THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CNY. A JET
STREAK WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ALLOWING FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TO BE POSSIBLE.
THE 2ND DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP BY THIS TIME GENERATING SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. THE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS
A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND WNY AS THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTH AND SPEED
OF THE HIGH WILL HELP DETERMINE THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TRACK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NEPA AND
SNJ THURSDAY MORNING OR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT
WITH UP TO 0.25IN POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE FULLY IN
CONTROL BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. THURSDAY WILL SEE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
US ON SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY TILT NEGATIVELY, GENERATING A LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH NE AS
SATURDAY PROGRESSES, BUT ITS INFLUENCE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP RAIN AT BAY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IF IT MOVES
OUT QUICKER AND ISN'T AS STRONG, RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IF IT REMAINS STRONG, RAIN SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LOW, BUT WE DO EXPECTED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AREA. THE TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY, DRYING US OUT
AND ALLOWING ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MID-WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE TERMINALS. SOME DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY IN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH MAKES CONFIDENCE IN FOG A BIT
LOWER AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM OVERHEAD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS POSSIBLE AT ELM,
ITH AND RME WITH AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
ANY EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY 13Z
LEADING TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, SO PROB30 GROUPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR THE CNY
TERMINALS, WHICH HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION COMPARED TO AVP. THUNDER WAS KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE ANY ISOLATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR; ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE.
THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS: AREAS OF MORNING
FOG, ESPECIALLY NEAR ELM.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...DK
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