976
FXUS61 KBGM 190344
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1144 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, AND
POTENTIALLY A STORM OR TWO, TODAY, MAINLY FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MAINLY NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER ON THURSDAY, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY AN AFTERNOON STORM OR TWO.
2) HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. GOING INTO THE
DAYTIME, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT TO OUR AREA, IT WILL HAVE
WEAKENED A BIT, AND SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A WEAK STORM OR TWO, MAINLY FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK BETWEEN 1PM AND 6PM. LATER TONIGHT, VALLEY FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN, OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE, OFF TO THE SOUTH
THIS TIME, WILL SKATE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SOUTHERN TIER, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A STORM OR
TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN, WITH
A FEW DIFFERENT DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGESTING EITHER A
NORTHERN OR SOUTHERN TRACK. SEEING THIS, WE DECIDED TO STICK
WITH THE NBM SOLUTION FOR NOW, WHICH HAS CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTHERN TIER, BUT
INCLUDES SOME CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY, WHICH ALIGNS
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY SEEN IN CURRENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING
MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-70S TO LOW-80S, WITH
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-50S FRIDAY AND LOW-60S
SATURDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
HEADING INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SINCE THIS IS ALMOST
A WEEK AWAY, NOT A LOT OF DETAILS OTHER THAN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, AND LIKELY SOME STORMS FOLLOWING THE
BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES OVER THE AREA. TIMING IS PROBABLY THE
MOST UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME GUIDANCE HAVING AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
WITH PRECIPITATION, AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE OTHERS
HAVE A LATER ARRIVAL OF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS NEWER
RUNS COME OUT WITH TIME, WE SHOULD SEE A BETTER TIME LINE OF
EVENTS FOR THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NY ON MONDAY, BUT THE SYSTEM'S SPEED THROUGH THE
COMING DAYS WILL DETERMINE IF THERE'S ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL
FOR MONDAY.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE TERMINALS. SOME DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY IN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH MAKES CONFIDENCE IN FOG A BIT
LOWER AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM OVERHEAD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS POSSIBLE AT ELM,
ITH AND RME WITH AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
ANY EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY 13Z
LEADING TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF. A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WITH AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, SO PROB30 GROUPS WERE INTRODUCED FOR THE CNY
TERMINALS, WHICH HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION COMPARED TO AVP. THUNDER WAS KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE ANY ISOLATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP WITH MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR; ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE.
THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS: AREAS OF MORNING
FOG, ESPECIALLY NEAR ELM.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...DK
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