317
FXUS61 KBGM 192344
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
744 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE FINGER LAKES FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WERE ALSO
INCREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
STALLS IN CENTRAL PA WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW, MAINLY IN
NE PA.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN FOR THE LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DAY TIME HEATING, BETTER SURFACE BASED CAPE
FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NEPA WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT IS AROUND 30
KNOTS SO IF A STORM CAN GET TALL ENOUGH TO GET INTO THE HIGHER
WINDS ABOVE AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET, SOME SMALL HAIL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD HUMIDITY ALOFT WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP A STRONG DOWNBURST SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. TONIGHT WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME CLEARING AT TIMES, WIDESPREAD VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
TOMORROW, THE FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH TODAY LOOKS TO STALL
SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL PA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROPAGATING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A STRIP OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG ITS
WEST TO EAST PATH. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT WILL STALL BUT IT COULD BE DRAPED ACROSS A PORTION OF
NEPA. IF IT DOES, 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
WYOMING VALLEY INTO THE POCONOS. EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL RATES DONT
LOOK TO BE TOO HIGH, RUNOFF RATES WILL BE HIGHER THAN TYPICAL
DUE TO RECENT RAINS SO SOME SMALLER STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY
APPROACH BANK FULL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONCE THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW
EVENING, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS PROGRESS SOUTH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. MORNING FOG WILL BE COMMONPLACE WITH THE
LONGER NIGHTS AND CLEAR SKIES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH DIGS IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE RAIN COVERAGE AS THE
500 MB TROUGH IS TRYING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE A STRONGER SLOW MOVING LOW NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST
WITH AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW. TRENDS
HAVE BEEN BRINGING SOME OF THIS RAIN INTO NEPA AND EVEN INTO THE
CATSKILLS. IF THIS LOW STAYS TO THE SOUTH, ONLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT HELPING LEAD
TO AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION WITH DAY TIME HEATING. THE GREAT
LAKES ARE WARM ENOUGH WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
AROUND 5 TO 10C TO GET SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
(AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY). FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
KELM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN IFR-OR-WORSE VISBY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS THERE.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AT KITH, BUT WITH
LESS CONFIDENCE, ONLY INCLUDED MVFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS WITHIN A
TEMPO GROUP THERE.
OTHERWISE, RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY IMPACT KAVP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR RESTRICTIONS. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE THESE SHOWERS REACH AS FAR NORTH AS KBGM, BUT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE AT THIS TIME. ANY
REMAINING RESTRICTIONS LIKELY END TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; AREAS
OF MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY NEAR KELM.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...BJG
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