464
FXUS61 KBGM 200643
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
243 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE PA, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE POCONOS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLING BOUNDARY WILL
LEAD TO SOME RAIN AT TIMES TODAY, MAINLY FROM THE NY/PA BORDER
ON SOUTH. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE POCONOS.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NY INTO
NW PA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY, AND MAY EVEN STALL OUT FOR A TIME ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PA
AND JUST SOUTH OF NE PA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RIDE ALONG THIS FRONT AND PASS SOUTH OF THE POCONOS, LEADING TO
A PERIOD OF SOME STEADIER RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY FROM THE NY/PA
BORDER ON SOUTH ACROSS NE PA. THERE CAN BE AN EMBEDDED STRIPE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NE PA, AND WHILE THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS MAY SET UP, THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE FROM AROUND THE WYOMING VALLEY INTO THE POCONOS. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW PWAT VALUES RISING TOWARD OR A BIT ABOVE
1.50 INCHES FROM THE TWIN TIERS ON SOUTH, DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES
ON SOUNDINGS AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF ABOUT 10-12K FEET. THE
NAM ALSO SHOWS A DEVELOPING JET STREAK OVER NE PA INTO THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH 500MB WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. WHILE OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
IS NOT AS BULLISH, IT DOES SHOW INCREASING WINDS ALOFT IN THIS
AREA AS WELL ENHANCING LIFT. AS A RESULT, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
CAN BE ENOUGH ENHANCEMENT FOR A NARROW CORRIDOR TO SEE RAINFALL
TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EARLY EVENING APPROACHING AN
INCH FROM SOUTHERN LUZERNE TO PIKE COUNTIES. A SHARP CUTOFF IN
RAINFALL TOTALS IS EXPECTED NORTH OF HERE WITH ABOUT A TENTH TO
1/3RD OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE TWIN TIERS AND INTO
THE CATSKILLS.
THE LATEST HREF GIVES A 30% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF
RAIN IN 3 HOURS FROM AROUND I-84 ON SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND A
50% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS JUST SOUTH
OF LUZERNE AND PIKE COUNTIES. IN FACT, THE HREF HAS A 10% CHANCE
OF GREATER THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS NOT TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE POCONOS, INDICATING THAT POTENTIAL SHARP
GRADIENT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE REGION LATER TODAY, AND THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THIS COULD TRY TO SHIFT A BIT FARTHER
NORTH GIVEN RECENT TRENDS. WPC DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OUT OF 5) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NE PA WHERE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FROM A CONVECTIVE STANDPOINT, THERE LOOKS
TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING,
SO THE RISK FOR THUNDER IS VERY LOW. IT WILL BE A COOLER DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS PROGRESS SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AS SKIES CLEAR, AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A NOTICEABLY
COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S. HIGHS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS IN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE RAIN COVERAGE
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH IS TRYING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH
A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES, WHILE
ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING LOW LIFTS NORTH NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH
AN AREA OF STEADIER AND LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN ON THE NW SIDE OF
THE LOW. SOME GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING SOME OF THIS STEADIER
RAINFALL INTO NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS, BUT IF THE LOW CAN STAY
FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH, IT MAY TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY TO SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
THE GREAT LAKES ARE WARM ENOUGH WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO AROUND 5 TO 10C TO GET SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH EXCEPTION TO FOG DEVELOPING AT ELM AND POSSIBLY AT SYR/ITH.
FOG AT KELM LATE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN IFR-OR-WORSE
VISBY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT ITH, BUT
GUIDANCE HINTS AT MVFR VISIBILITY DESPITE ON AND OFF CLOUD
COVER. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AT KSYR,
WHERE A RAIN SHOWER MOVED THROUGH EARLIER.
OTHERWISE, RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY IMPACT KAVP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR RESTRICTIONS. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE THESE SHOWERS REACH AS FAR NORTH AS KBGM/ELM,
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE AT THIS TIME.
ANY REMAINING RESTRICTIONS LIKELY END IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; AREAS
OF MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY NEAR KELM.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG/DK
AVIATION...BJG/ES
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