805
FXUS61 KBGM 210611
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
211 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED WITH
VISIBILITY ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL LEAD TO PLEASANT AND DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY. AFTER THIS MORNING'S FOG BURNS OFF, PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS IN STORE THE REST OF THE DAY.
2) A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE HALF
MILE OR LESS IN MANY LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF
THE DENSE FOG THIS MORNING, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MOST COUNTIES UNTIL 10 AM. THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES,
SYRACUSE METRO AND TOWARD THE TUG HILL WERE LEFT OUT OF THE
ADVISORY FOR NOW WITH THIS AREA SEEING LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS ADVISORY
COULD BE EXTENDED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME OR AN SPS ISSUED
FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THIS AREA AS WELL AS FOR PIKE AND
SULLIVAN COUNTIES IF FOG COVERAGE BECOMES MORE EXPANSIVE ON
SATELLITE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
AFTER THE COOL AND FOGGY START TO THE DAY, IT WILL BECOME
PLEASANT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AND LIKELY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT, AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN, MOSTLY IN THE
VALLEYS. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOW 80S AND
IT WON'T BE QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
COMPARED TO STEPPING OUT THE DOOR THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
50S AREAWIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH FROM CANADA AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE A SEPARATE SURFACE LOW IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT
NORTHWARD. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES AND EXACTLY HOW THEY MAY INTERACT,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF KEEPING THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW TO
OUR EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE FEATURE LIKELY PASSING TO
OUR EAST, THERE CAN BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND, BUT RAIN
SHOWERS LOOK TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST, PASSING
BY JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A STRONG 500MB CLOSED LOW FORMS AND
MOVES OVER THE AREA, WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH 850MB TEMPS 6C TO 10C AND A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE. THIS ALL SETS UP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR MONDAY. AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS NE TUESDAY, THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NYS
THRUWAY BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA
HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. RAIN DID NOT REACH SYR/RME, SO WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THESE SITES. HOWEVER, SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS, SO
TEMPO GROUPS WERE INCLUDED. ELM AND ITH FOGGED IN QUICKLY THIS
EVENING, WITH LIFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 14Z. BGM MAY INITIALLY REMAIN ABOVE THE VALLEY
FOG, THOUGH IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY UP TO THE
TERMINAL. FOG ALSO HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING AVP, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON WHETHER RESTRICTIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY TO
VISIBILITY OR CEILINGS. THEREFORE AN IFR TEMPO GROUP WAS USED
AT THIS TIME. ONCE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; AREAS
OF MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY NEAR KELM.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ022>025-
036-044>046-055>057.
DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...AJG/ES
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