907
FXUS61 KBGM 211722
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
122 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOWER CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FOR THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER FAIRLY CLEAR NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS. FOG LOOKS
TO BE A BIT MORE CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS TONIGHT. OUR REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SATURDAY. WITH SOUTHEAST
FLOW, CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE ANYWHERE FROM LATE MORNING TILL MID-
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY DESPITE
MODEST SHEAR IN PLACE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. HOWEVER, ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN ADDITION TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. GENERAL QPF DOES NOT LOOK
SUFFICIENT EITHER FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY TYPICAL WITH LOWS NEAR 60 AND
HIGHS NEAR 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TREND COOLER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BE DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW UNDER A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AS WELL ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
THEN REBOUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
KEYING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ONCE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTION TO FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; AREAS
OF MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY NEAR KELM.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...ES
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