608
FXUS61 KBGM 221028
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
628 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A BRIEF LULL IN WET WEATHER
WEDNESDAY, THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AS WELL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE FEATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVERS OF OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THAT WILL BE SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD BUT MOST
OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND THERE CAN BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT SHOWER CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN EMBEDDED UPPER
SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
MORE NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SHIFTS EAST.
CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK TO BE PRETTY LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY (500 TO LOCALLY 1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE), BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MLCAPE AND BULK SHEAR. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR AS WELL, SO THUNDER WAS REDUCED TO
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THIS TIME.
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST, PASSING JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
SUNDAY. AS IT SHIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER, IT
WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY (TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN). THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDER IS A LITTLE BETTER ON SUNDAY AS 0-6KM SHEAR NOTICEABLY
INCREASES TO 35-50 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE A BIT HIGHER AROUND 6- 6.5 C/KM AS WELL. MUCAPE STILL
LOOKS TO AVERAGE 500-1000 J/KG, BUT THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE
BULLISH EAST OF I-81. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE CAN BE A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS SUNDAY EVENING.
BY MONDAY, THE 500MB CLOSED LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS COMBINED
WITH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +6C TO +10C AND A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS NE TUESDAY, THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NYS
THRUWAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEFORE TURNING
NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THIS WEEKEND SETTING BACK UP WITH
A POTENTIAL LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST THAT WOULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW THESE FEATURES
APPEAR TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LOOK TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ELM THIS MORNING, BRINGING
LIFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 13-14Z, BEFORE QUICKLY SCATTERING OUT
AND IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY AROUND 1430Z. AVP HAS SOME SCT TO
BKN MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY, BUT THESE WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. THE OTHER TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR T'STORM INVOF AVP
OR BGM BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE AND
COVERAGE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF A THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, LOWERING CLOUD BASES AND CIGS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH
LATER THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO REACH AVP
AFTER 23/02Z, ELM 23/03Z AND BGM 23/04Z. THE MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES. THESE COULD BRING OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AT TIMES.
EXPECTED LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING, LESS
THAN 5 KTS. THE WINDS TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE BETWEEN
6-15 KTS LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...MJM
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