254
FXUS61 KBGM 230551
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS AND QPF WERE INCREASED FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR DUE
TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A BRIEF LULL IN WET WEATHER
WEDNESDAY, THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AS WELL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVERS OF OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY STABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS,
COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF A FORCING MECHANISM HAS ALLOWED FOR
THE AREA TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR NOW. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST, PASSING JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. AS IT SHIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER, IT
WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LATEST
TRENDS HAVE THIS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IN THE MORNING, WHICH
KEEPS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON (GREATEST CHANCE IN
CENTRAL NY), BUT COVERAGE OF THESE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
BY MONDAY, THE 500MB CLOSED LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS COMBINED
WITH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +6C TO +10C AND A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE, ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE TUESDAY, THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY WITH THE UPPER
LOW OVERHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A SIMILAR
PATTERN TO THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY SET BACK UP WITH A
POTENTIAL LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST THAT WOULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW THESE FEATURES
APPEAR TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LOOK TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LINE OF SHOWERS, WITH ASSOCIATED CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL
PRESS SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR/MVFR FUEL ALT
RESTRICTIONS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. RME AND BGM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK ( APPROX 09-13Z) AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
AFTER THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE, MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR A CHANCE OF
TSRA AT OUR NY TAF SITES (MAINLY 16-21Z TODAY). OUTSIDE OF THE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
AND SCATTER, BACK TO GENERALLY VFR BY 17/18Z AS SOME DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AS
THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS STAY JUST NORTH.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO
TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY AND INCREASE BETWEEN 8-20 KTS
OVER THE AREA. WINDS THEN DIMINISH BELOW 10 KTS HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/DK
AVIATION...AJG/MJM
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