313
FXUS61 KBGM 231039
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS WERE INCREASED AND BROUGHT FARTHER SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE TWIN TIERS AND PORTIONS OF NE PA AS COVERAGE OF LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS IS OFTEN UNDERDONE BY THE NBM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A BRIEF LULL IN WET WEATHER
WEDNESDAY, THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR GEORGIAN BAY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER BEFORE REACHING THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN POP UP, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CNY AND TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES. 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS
WITH ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND ABOUT 300 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON DAYTIME HEATING MEANS THERE IS AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK WHERE A FEW STORMS POPPING UP COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR TODAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THAT A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS, THEN AS THE
UPPER LOW SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT, SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN MAKE
A RETURN LATE. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE BRINGING IN SOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WITH IT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS +7
TO +10C MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT AND A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE, ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE NBM TENDS TO BE UNDERDONE WITH COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IN THIS SET UP, SO SHOWER CHANCES WERE ADDED FARTHER
SOUTH THROUGH THE TWIN TIERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE TUESDAY, SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN
STILL LINGER, ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO, BEFORE DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AREAWIDE
BEFORE COOLING DOWN INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S TOMORROW. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THIS WEEKEND SETTING BACK UP WITH
A POTENTIAL LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST THAT WOULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEAN TOWARD THE ACTIVITY MOVING IN MORE TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY, SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR
IN THE COMING DAYS. AS OF NOW THESE FEATURES APPEAR TO BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND LOOK TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS ARE STILL IMPACTING RME EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY 13Z. LINGERING MVFR CIGS WILL BE AROUND THE REGION
UNTIL AROUND 16-18Z, WHEN DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVES IN, LIFTING
AND SCATTERING THE CIGS (TO VFR).
AFTER THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE, MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR A CHANCE OF
TSRA AT OUR NY TAF SITES (MAINLY 16-21Z TODAY), PROBABILITIES
WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT AVP AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, AS THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS STAY JUST NORTH.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO
TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY AND INCREASE BETWEEN 8-18 KTS
OVER THE AREA. WINDS THEN DIMINISH BELOW 10 KTS HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...MJM
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