145
FXUS61 KBGM 231704
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
104 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOWER COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ARE STILL
FORECASTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A BRIEF LULL IN WET WEATHER
WEDNESDAY, THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER A BROAD TROUGH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL
HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MODELED LAPSE RATES.
THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY PULLING SOME LAKE MOISTURE
INTO THE PICTURE AND GENERATING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS CNY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT WITH ONLY BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPERATURES THOUGH TREND COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND RAINFALL WITH HIGHS BARELY MAKING 70 AND LOWS IN THE 50'S.
OUR FIRST REAL FEEL OF FALL THIS YEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A BREAK IS MODELED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS STILL LOOKS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FOR A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO THE 80'S WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWERS ARE STILL IMPACTING RME EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY 13Z. LINGERING MVFR CIGS WILL BE AROUND THE REGION
UNTIL AROUND 16-18Z, WHEN DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVES IN, LIFTING
AND SCATTERING THE CIGS (TO VFR).
AFTER THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE, MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR A CHANCE OF
TSRA AT OUR NY TAF SITES (MAINLY 16-21Z TODAY), PROBABILITIES
WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT AVP AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, AS THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS STAY JUST NORTH.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO
TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY AND INCREASE BETWEEN 8-18 KTS
OVER THE AREA. WINDS THEN DIMINISH BELOW 10 KTS HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...MJM
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