816
FXUS61 KBGM 231724
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
124 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOWER COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ARE STILL
FORECASTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A BRIEF LULL IN WET WEATHER
WEDNESDAY, THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER A BROAD TROUGH OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL
HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MODELED LAPSE RATES.
THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY PULLING SOME LAKE MOISTURE
INTO THE PICTURE AND GENERATING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS CNY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT WITH ONLY BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPERATURES THOUGH TREND COOLER DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND RAINFALL WITH HIGHS BARELY MAKING 70 AND LOWS IN THE 50'S.
OUR FIRST REAL FEEL OF FALL THIS YEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A BREAK IS MODELED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS STILL LOOKS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FOR A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO THE 80'S WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING, WITH TEMPO GROUPS INCLUDED AT EVERY TERMINAL. STORMS
WILL BE QUITE SCATTERED, AND IF ONE WERE TO MOVE OVER A
TERMINAL, BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AS THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS STAY JUST
NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WITH AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...KL
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