919
FXUS61 KBGM 241043
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
643 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS WERE INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS
ROTATING THROUGH MAINLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. POPS WERE ALSO
INCREASED ALONG WITH SHOWER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY,
MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A BRIEF LULL IN WET WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
DRYING BACK OUT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A
CLOSED LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL
SWING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND HELP DRAWN IN SOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH, SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON,
AND NORTHWESTERLY INTO TUESDAY, TAPPING INTO LAKE MOISTURE. WITH
COOL AIR ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON, STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AND UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE, SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, MOST WIDESPREAD FROM THE TWIN TIERS ON
NORTH. SOME SMALL HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE HEAVIEST OF
SHOWERS.
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT BEFORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH SPREADS SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
ONCE AGAIN. POPS WERE INCREASED FROM THE NBM ACROSS THE TWIN
TIERS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NBM TENDS
TO BE UNDERDONE WITH SHOWER COVERAGE AND NOT FAR ENOUGH SE IN
THIS SET UP.
IT WILL BE QUITE COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S. PORTIONS OF SW STEUBEN COUNTY MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO THE MID 50S. HIGHS TUESDAY AGAIN GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LIFT
NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ENHANCE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. WPC DOES
HAS NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT FOR
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, SO THIS WILL BE A TREND TO MONITOR.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. THE LAKE
PLAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES DO LOOK A BIT WARMER ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME PLACES REACHING THE LOW
AND MID 80S.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE SPINNING UNDER AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WILL IMPACT
RME AND SYR UNTIL 13-14Z, BRINGING SOME BRIEF MVFR CLOUD BASES.
OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH PROB30 GROUPS INCLUDED FOR BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT RME,
SYR,ITH,ELM AND BGM MAINLY BETWEEN ABOUT 19Z AND 01Z. CAN'T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, BUT CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT ANY TAF SITE AT THIS TIME. HEADING INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS MVFR CIGS DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND OVERSPREAD
SYR, RME, ITH AND ELM BETWEEN 03-06Z TUESDAY. THERE COULD ALSO
BE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME,
ESPECIALLY AT SYR AND RME. MVFR/MVFR FUEL ALT CIGS CONTINUE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NY TAF SITES, WITH A
CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT RME AND SYR TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 5 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING HOURS TODAY. WINDS THEN TURN SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...LINGERING MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND. IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY OR EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, MORNING FOG POTENTIAL
AT ELM.
FRIDAY...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WITH AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...MJM
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