659
FXUS61 KBGM 241727
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
127 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS WERE INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS
ROTATING THROUGH MAINLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. POPS WERE ALSO
INCREASED ALONG WITH SHOWER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY,
MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A BRIEF LULL IN WET WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
DRYING BACK OUT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A
CLOSED LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL
SWING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND HELP DRAWN IN SOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH, SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON,
AND NORTHWESTERLY INTO TUESDAY, TAPPING INTO LAKE MOISTURE. WITH
COOL AIR ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON, STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AND UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE, SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, MOST WIDESPREAD FROM THE TWIN TIERS ON
NORTH. SOME SMALL HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE HEAVIEST OF
SHOWERS.
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT BEFORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH ALONG THE BASE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH SPREADS SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
ONCE AGAIN. POPS WERE INCREASED FROM THE NBM ACROSS THE TWIN
TIERS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NBM TENDS
TO BE UNDERDONE WITH SHOWER COVERAGE AND NOT FAR ENOUGH SE IN
THIS SET UP.
IT WILL BE QUITE COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S. PORTIONS OF SW STEUBEN COUNTY MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO THE MID 50S. HIGHS TUESDAY AGAIN GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LIFT
NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ENHANCE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. WPC DOES
HAS NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT FOR
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, SO THIS WILL BE A TREND TO MONITOR.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. THE LAKE
PLAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES DO LOOK A BIT WARMER ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME PLACES REACHING THE LOW
AND MID 80S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
NOT EXPECTED TO BRING LONG-TERM RESTRICTIONS, BUT COULD BE BRIEF
WITH A PASSING SHOWER. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 19Z AND
01Z FOR MOST TERMINALS. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, BUT CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY TAF
SITE AT THIS TIME. HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS MVFR CIGS
DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT AVP BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO BE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY AT SYR AND RME.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...LINGERING MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND. IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY OR EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, MORNING FOG POTENTIAL
AT ELM.
FRIDAY...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WITH AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...KL
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