553
FXUS61 KBGM 241746
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. POPS WERE ONCE AGAIN BUMPED UP FROM THE NBM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
DRYING BACK OUT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED OUR AREA THE PAST
FEW DAYS REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
COMBINED WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WITH COOL AIR PRESENT ALOFT (850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +7-8C), SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM, OR EVEN JUST A HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER.
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR TONIGHT,
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH RESULTS IN THE FLOW TURNING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONCE AGAIN THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND
POTENTIALLY INTO NORTHEAST PA. POPS WERE INCREASED FROM THE NBM
BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NBM TENDS TO BE
UNDERDONE WITH SHOWER COVERAGE AND NOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST IN
THIS SETUP.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, IT WILL FEEL A BIT FALL-LIKE BOTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S, POTENTIALLY
MID 70S IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LIFT NORTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ENHANCE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. THE LAKE
PLAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES DO LOOK A BIT WARMER ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME PLACES REACHING THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
NOT EXPECTED TO BRING LONG-TERM RESTRICTIONS, BUT COULD BE BRIEF
WITH A PASSING SHOWER. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 19Z AND
01Z FOR MOST TERMINALS. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, BUT CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY TAF
SITE AT THIS TIME. HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS MVFR CIGS
DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT AVP BETWEEN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO BE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY AT SYR AND RME.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...LINGERING MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND. IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY OR EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, MORNING FOG POTENTIAL
AT ELM.
FRIDAY...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WITH AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/DK
AVIATION...KL
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