750
FXUS61 KBGM 242343
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
743 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. POPS WERE ONCE AGAIN BUMPED UP FROM THE NBM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
DRYING BACK OUT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED OUR AREA THE PAST
FEW DAYS REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
COMBINED WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WITH COOL AIR PRESENT ALOFT (850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND +7-8C), SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM, OR EVEN JUST A HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER.
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR TONIGHT,
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH RESULTS IN THE FLOW TURNING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONCE AGAIN THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND
POTENTIALLY INTO NORTHEAST PA. POPS WERE INCREASED FROM THE NBM
BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NBM TENDS TO BE
UNDERDONE WITH SHOWER COVERAGE AND NOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST IN
THIS SETUP.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, IT WILL FEEL A BIT FALL-LIKE BOTH TODAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S, POTENTIALLY
MID 70S IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LIFT NORTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ENHANCE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. THE LAKE
PLAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES DO LOOK A BIT WARMER ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME PLACES REACHING THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH AND SHOULD BE PAST
BGM BY THE TOP OF THE HOUR, SO RAIN WAS LEFT OUT OF MOST SITES.
HOWEVER, PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT RME AND SYR
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. EVENTUALLY SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER CENTRAL NY TERMINALS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT TO MVFR
AND FUEL ALT. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT RME. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINITY ON TIMING AND HOW QUICKLY THE LOW CEILINGS LIFT
OUT. GUIDANCE HAS LOW CEILINGS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVP MAY SEE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PRIOR TO 18Z TUESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BY AROUND 20Z, ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW AT ALL CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR,
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH MORNING FOG.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WITH
AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/DK
AVIATION...BTL
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