797
FXUS61 KBGM 250532
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
132 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS WERE ONCE AGAIN BUMPED UP ACROSS CNY AND NE PA FROM THE
NBM FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD
DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A BRIEF LULL IN WET WEATHER
WEDNESDAY, THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DRYING BACK OUT
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW THAT HAVE BEEN IMPACTING
THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY SHIFT OFF TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, PRIOR TO ITS DEPARTURE
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LEAD
TO SHOWER ACTIVITY BEING CONCENTRATED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NYS
THRUWAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
DEPARTING TROUGH AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TURNING THE FLOW MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS TO SPREAD
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONCE AGAIN THROUGH CNY AND POTENTIALLY
INTO NE PA. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS, POPS WERE INCREASED
FROM THE NBM THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NBM TENDS TO BE UNDERDONE
WITH SHOWER COVERAGE AND NOT EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST IN THIS
SETUP.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A BIT OF A FALL-
LIKE FEEL IN SOME PLACE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID
70S. PARTS OF THE WYOMING AND DELAWARE RIVER VALLEYS CAN MAKE A
RUN INTO THE UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LIFT
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ENHANCING THE MOISTURE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY AROUND THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS).
THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY DRENCHING DOWNPOURS; PWATS LOOK TO
RISE TO 1.25-1.50 INCHES ON AVERAGE. WPC DOES HAVE NE PA,
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE CATSKILLS OUTLOOKED IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH IS FARTHER NORTH THAN 24 HOURS
AGO, SO THIS WILL BE A TREND TO MONITOR.
IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME,
THERE IS ON AVERAGE 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THE
GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SOME AREAS OF 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF
125-150+ M2/S2 AND LCL HEIGHTS ON THE NAM ARE GENERALLY UNDER
1000M WHILE THE GFS IS HIGHER OUTSIDE OF THE CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS, WITH VALUES NEAR OR GREATER THAN 1500M. PUTTING THIS
ALL TOGETHER, THERE ARE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE THAT COULD RESULT
IN SOME STRONGER STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO THIS
TOO BEARS WATCHING.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES. THE LAKE PLAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES
DO LOOK A BIT WARMER ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME
PLACES REACHING THE LOWER AND MID 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH AND SHOULD BE PAST
BGM BY THE TOP OF THE HOUR, SO RAIN WAS LEFT OUT OF MOST SITES.
HOWEVER, PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT RME AND SYR
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. EVENTUALLY SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER CENTRAL NY TERMINALS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT TO MVFR
AND FUEL ALT. IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT RME. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINITY ON TIMING AND HOW QUICKLY THE LOW CEILINGS LIFT
OUT. GUIDANCE HAS LOW CEILINGS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVP MAY SEE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PRIOR TO 18Z TUESDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BY AROUND 20Z, ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW AT ALL CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR,
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH MORNING FOG.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WITH
AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...BTL
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