883
FXUS61 KBGM 090548
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
148 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND FORECASTED ON
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MAIN RISKS ARE FOR LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING AND GUSTY
WINDS.
2) SOMEWHAT WINDY THURSDAY THEN TRENDING WARMER WITH A FEW
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS MORNING. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ALONG THE WARM FRONT MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NY
THRUWAY. OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHEAR LOOKS TO BE RATHER HIGH
FOR THIS EVENT. HI-RES MODELING HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
TIMING FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY
WINDS OR SPIN UP A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO EVEN WITH LITTLE
LIGHTNING. ALSO A FEW INDICATIONS OF LOCALIZED RAINFALL OF
AROUND AN INCH IN AN HOURS TIME. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
FOR SOME MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ISSUES. HIGHS
SHOULD GET TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60'S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.
MODELED SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 20-25 MPH WIND
GUSTS TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE. THE COOLER AIRMASS
REALLY DOESN'T ENTER THE REGION TILL FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, STILL
MORE LIKE LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURE WISE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. NBM GUIDANCE IS LIKELY
TOO COOL WITH THE TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RIDGING BY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS GET CLOSE TO 90 BY TUESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THAT TIME.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUD DECK IS MOVING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS, COMBINED WITH ACTIVE WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF FOG FORMATION HERE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS AND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS, FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE ELM TAF. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS,
PUSHING A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION THAT SHOULD GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH MORE PERSISTENT RAIN EXPECTED AT SYR
AND RME AND DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND CHANCES TO THE SOUTH.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT ELM AND ITH
WHERE A PROB30 HAS BEEN INTRODUCED. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER
DEVELOPING AT OTHER TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME AS CLOUDS AND RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY MAY HINDER
STORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EVENING
HOURS AT ELM/ITH/SYR/RME. RME MAY SEE IFR CEILINGS LATER IN THE
EVENING HOURS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE
WITH WIND SHIFT AND SHOWERS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTION POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...JTC
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