366
FXUS61 KBGM 091055
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
655 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND FORECASTED ON
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MAIN RISKS ARE FOR LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING AND GUSTY
WINDS.
2) SOMEWHAT WINDY THURSDAY THEN TRENDING WARMER WITH A FEW
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS MORNING. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ALONG THE WARM FRONT MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NY
THRUWAY. OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHEAR LOOKS TO BE RATHER HIGH
FOR THIS EVENT. HI-RES MODELING HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
TIMING FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY
WINDS OR SPIN UP A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO EVEN WITH LITTLE
LIGHTNING. ALSO A FEW INDICATIONS OF LOCALIZED RAINFALL OF
AROUND AN INCH IN AN HOURS TIME. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
FOR SOME MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ISSUES. HIGHS
SHOULD GET TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60'S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.
MODELED SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 20-25 MPH WIND
GUSTS TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE. THE COOLER AIRMASS
REALLY DOESN'T ENTER THE REGION TILL FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, STILL
MORE LIKE LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURE WISE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. NBM GUIDANCE IS LIKELY
TOO COOL WITH THE TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RIDGING BY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS GET CLOSE TO 90 BY TUESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THAT TIME.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE WEST AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO RAIN SHOWERS AT ELM/ITH/SYR/RME
EARLIER THAN THE LAST TAF SET TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RADAR TRENDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH THESE SHOWERS, BUT A BRIEF DIP
TO MVFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY, CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST FOR ELM AND ITH TO SEE STORMS, BUT SINCE THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CELLULAR IN NATURE, PROB30 GROUPS WERE CONTINUED
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF THE TERMINAL WOULD BE IMPACTED. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH IFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT ELM DUE TO FOG AFTER THE RAIN PUSHES
EAST OF THE TERMINAL.
SYR AND RME ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER THIS
MORNING BECOME MORE SUSTAINED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. RME MAY SEE SOME IFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE FUEL ALT
RESTRICTIONS SETTLE IN.
BGM AND AVP WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE SHOWERS, WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE
WITH WIND SHIFT AND SHOWERS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTION POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...JTC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page