693
FXUS61 KBGM 091801
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
201 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES TO TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND FORECASTED ON
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MAIN RISKS ARE FOR LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING AND GUSTY
WINDS.
2) SOMEWHAT WINDY THURSDAY THEN TRENDING WARMER WITH A FEW
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS MORNING. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ALONG THE WARM FRONT MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NY
THRUWAY. OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHEAR LOOKS TO BE RATHER HIGH
FOR THIS EVENT. HI-RES MODELING HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
TIMING FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY
WINDS OR SPIN UP A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO EVEN WITH LITTLE
LIGHTNING. ALSO A FEW INDICATIONS OF LOCALIZED RAINFALL OF
AROUND AN INCH IN AN HOURS TIME. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
FOR SOME MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ISSUES. HIGHS
SHOULD GET TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60'S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.
MODELED SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 20-25 MPH WIND
GUSTS TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE. THE COOLER AIRMASS
REALLY DOESN'T ENTER THE REGION TILL FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, STILL
MORE LIKE LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURE WISE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. NBM GUIDANCE IS LIKELY
TOO COOL WITH THE TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND RIDGING BY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS GET CLOSE TO 90 BY TUESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND THAT TIME.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CNY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT SYR AND RME.
SOME BRIEF IFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. A LINE OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS,
MAINLY FROM 00Z-09Z. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS HIGHEST FOR RME,
SYR, ITH AND ELM AND THIS CORRIDOR SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY FOR
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH IFR VISBY COVERED VIA TEMPO.
WHILE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS TO WANE BY THE TIME
CONVECTION REACHES BGM AND ITH, SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND IFR
VISBY REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR BGM.
AS SHOWERS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, SOME MVFR/FUEL-ALT CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 13Z-15Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTION POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...DK
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