843
FXUS61 KBGM 100507
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
107 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED FOG FOR THE ONGOING OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NEXT SHOWER CHANCE
TRENDING A BIT FASTER FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS COMING INTO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY.
2) SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS WEEKEND.
3) A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
IT WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME FOR THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SO, A WARM THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS
HIGHS PUSH 80. LOW TEMPERATURES DO TREND COOLER TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A WINNER WITH
SUNSHINE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING WARMER AND MOISTER AIR INTO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT
LOOKS TO BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. LIFT
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WARM FRONT HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER FROM PREVIOUS
UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A QUICK BREAK WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK ON TUESDAY AS MODELED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80'S. THERE IS A FAIRLY
LARGE SIX STANDARD DEVIATION SPREAD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
ECMWF SUITE. HOWEVER, THINKING IS STILL THAT THE NBM WILL TREND
WARMER AS WE GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HOLDS OFF TILL LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT, FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM VFR AT TIMES (MAINLY
EARLY) TO MOSTLY IN THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL VARY AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP SOME
BRIEF DOWNPOURS, LOWERING VSBYS AT TIMES. CLOUD BASES WILL ALSO
LOWER WITH THE PASSING SHOWERS AND OVERALL MOIST LOWER LEVELS. SOME
OF GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO SLOW WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING
THROUGH, SO IMPROVEMENTS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ARE
STARTING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. WITH ANY IMPROVEMENTS AND RAIN FALLING
EARLIER IN THE TAF PERIOD, IF THERE IS SOME CLEARING, THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MORE FAVORABLE SPOTS SUCH
AS ELM & ITH.
THURSDAY, MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE
SOME MORNING REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS IF THERE IS ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. CIGS WILL ALSO START OUT IN THE
MVFR RANGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WILL ALSO IMPROVE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. AVP WILL HAVE THE SLOWEST IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS AS
THE WAVE OF SHOWERS LINGERS THERE THE LONGEST. WINDS WILL PICKUP
ON THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE OUT OF THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTION POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...SJW
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