358
FXUS61 KBGM 100551
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED FOG FOR THE ONGOING OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NEXT SHOWER CHANCE
TRENDING A BIT FASTER FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS COMING INTO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY.
2) SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS WEEKEND.
3) A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
IT WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME FOR THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SO, A WARM THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS
HIGHS PUSH 80. LOW TEMPERATURES DO TREND COOLER TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A WINNER WITH
SUNSHINE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF
ADVECTING WARMER AND MOISTER AIR INTO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT
LOOKS TO BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. LIFT
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WARM FRONT HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER FROM PREVIOUS
UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A QUICK BREAK WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK ON TUESDAY AS MODELED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80'S. THERE IS A FAIRLY
LARGE SIX STANDARD DEVIATION SPREAD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
ECMWF SUITE. HOWEVER, THINKING IS STILL THAT THE NBM WILL TREND
WARMER AS WE GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HOLDS OFF TILL LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST, AND WILL EXIT THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE AT BGM AND
ESPECIALLY AVP THROUGH 08-09Z EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
SOME BKN TO OVC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING SW TO NE OVER
THE AREA, BUT SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE. WITH THE VERY HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE PRESENT, THIS COULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. HAVE INCLUDED IFR/LIFR FOG AT ELM THROUGH
13Z THIS MORNING, WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AT BGM THROUGH 11Z.
ELSEWHERE RME COULD SEE SOME TEMPO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z.
THE REMAINING TAF SITES (SYR, ITH AND AVP) WILL SEE GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE FOG BURNS OFF AND CIGS LIFT TO
MAINLY VFR AROUND THE AREA BY 13-14Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTED
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME MORE BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE
AFTER SUNSET INTO THE EVENING HOURS; THIS WILL LIKELY ACT TO AT
LEAST DELAY FOG FORMATION UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD
FRIDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL PICKUP BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15-24 KNOT RANGE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ABOUT 16-21Z. WINDS THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR; EXCEPT RESTRICTION DUE TO VALLEY FOR
LIKELY AT ELM.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...RESTRICTION POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...MJM/SJW
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