051
FXUS61 KBGM 102356
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
756 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DEW POINTS WERE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WERE LOWERED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH.
3) ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S BUT HUMIDITY IS FAIRLY LOW THANKS TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE. A FEW
POP UP SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS.
GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE, THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULD
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH PRECIPITATION. ANY SHOWERS THAT CAN DEVELOP
SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL
BECOME MUCH CALMER AND THAT SHOULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPING, AT LEAST
IN THE VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER CLOUD COVER THAT MAY DELAY
THE TIMING OF FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT
DAY IN STORE. UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB
INTO THE 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. DEW POINTS WERE LOWERED
WITH THE HELP OF CONSALL GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE A COOL AND POTENTIALLY
FOG NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS. WITH THE LATER TIMING, INSTABILITY WILL BE
QUITE LIMITED BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS. A COLD FRONT WILL SOON FOLLOW
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS ARE SHOWING AROUND 500 TO
1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IF THERE IS A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND SOME
CLEARING SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY, THEN THESE VALUES MAY BE POSSIBLE.
COMBINED WITH 30 TO 35 KTS OF SHEAR, SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD THEN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE LACKING SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM. BESIDES SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING, THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
NORTHWARD COVERAGE. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH, AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE COLDER
AIR THEN FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SOME WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE START OF TUESDAY DRY AS TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S. THE HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES
EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH SHOWERS ENTERING NORTH-CENTRAL NY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHEAST PA STAYING DRY UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM
AND HOW QUICK PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD. AREAS THAT CAN STAY
RAIN-FREE EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A STRAY SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND AVP OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS; OTHERWISE, DRY AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE
STARTED TO TREND DOWNWARD AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN, FOG IS EXPECTED
TO FORM AT ELM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH LIFR RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED. NAM SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT SOME FOG AROUND ITH AS WELL,
BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE REMAINS VFR, SO THIS WILL BE A SPOT TO
MONITOR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TOMORROW. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
RESTRICTIONS DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 13Z TOMORROW. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTION POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...BTL/DK
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