385
FXUS61 KBGM 120535
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR NORTHEAST PA TO THE CATSKILLS WAS ONCE
AGAIN INCREASED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT ALSO REDUCED FOR SUNDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER, THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
2) AFTER A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WARMER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
BE PRESENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL TEMPERATURES (LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S TO NEAR 50; UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY), AND
SOME VALLEY FOG.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS, AND EVENTUALLY RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE RAIN-FREE DURING THE DAYTIME
ON SATURDAY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN WEST OF I-81 DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
THE MOST CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PWATS
WILL BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND COUPLED WITH A DECENT LLJ, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THIS
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST PA-CATSKILLS. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE RAINFALL SUNDAY
MORNING, BEFORE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS, SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, COOLER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION, WHICH WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
MOST TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION FOR ELM WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WITH THE
DRIER AIR IN PLACE TODAY, THIS MAY KEEP ELM FROM SEEING LOW
CLOUD AND FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER, WITH THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES THERE TONIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO OR REACH THE
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE FOR FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW, KEPT A TEMPO
IN FOR IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IF FOG HOLDS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
CLOUDS INCREASE TOMORROW AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST TERMINALS FROM 0Z TO THE END OF THE TAF. SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO ELM SOONER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE RAINFALL
SPREADS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH MVFR TO FUEL ALT RESTRICTIONS
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTION POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...DK/ES
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