269
FXUS61 KBGM 120547
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR NORTHEAST PA TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS
WAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
2) AFTER A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WARMER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS,
AND EVENTUALLY RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE RAIN-FREE DURING THE DAYTIME ON
SATURDAY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN WEST OF I-81 DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THE MOST CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND
COUPLED WITH A DECENT LLJ, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA-CATSKILLS. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE RAINFALL SUNDAY
MORNING, BEFORE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DESTABILZATION WITH
1,000-1,500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE AND CLOSE TO 1,000 J/KG OF
DCAPE. HOWEVER, POOR LAPSE RATES LOOK TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MORE ISOLATED WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN
CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, COOLER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION, WHICH WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MONDAY ENDS
UP CLOUDIER THAN FORECASTED GIVEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THOUGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
MOST TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION FOR ELM WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WITH THE
DRIER AIR IN PLACE TODAY, THIS MAY KEEP ELM FROM SEEING LOW
CLOUD AND FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER, WITH THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES THERE TONIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO OR REACH THE
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE FOR FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW, KEPT A TEMPO
IN FOR IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IF FOG HOLDS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
CLOUDS INCREASE TOMORROW AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST TERMINALS FROM 0Z TO THE END OF THE TAF. SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INTO ELM SOONER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE RAINFALL
SPREADS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH MVFR TO FUEL ALT RESTRICTIONS
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTION POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/MWG
AVIATION...DK/ES
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