899
FXUS61 KBGM 121042
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
642 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR NORTHEAST PA TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS
WAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
2) AFTER A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WARMER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS,
AND EVENTUALLY RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE RAIN-FREE DURING THE DAYTIME ON
SATURDAY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN WEST OF I-81 DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THE MOST CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND
COUPLED WITH A DECENT LLJ, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA-CATSKILLS. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE RAINFALL SUNDAY
MORNING, BEFORE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DESTABILZATION WITH
1,000-1,500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE AND CLOSE TO 1,000 J/KG OF
DCAPE. HOWEVER, POOR LAPSE RATES LOOK TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MORE ISOLATED WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN
CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, COOLER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION, WHICH WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MONDAY ENDS
UP CLOUDIER THAN FORECASTED GIVEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THOUGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOG AT ELM IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF QUICKLY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS WINDS
SHIFT SOUTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, REACHING ELM BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
WILL DEVELOP AT MOST OTHER TERMINALS LATER IN THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED AT MOST SITES, IF NOT ALL.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTION POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/MWG
AVIATION...ES
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