985
FXUS61 KBGM 121800
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR NORTHEAST PA TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS
WAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
2) AFTER A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WARMER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS,
AND EVENTUALLY RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE RAIN-FREE DURING THE DAYTIME ON
SATURDAY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN WEST OF I-81 DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THE MOST CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND
COUPLED WITH A DECENT LLJ, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA-CATSKILLS. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE RAINFALL SUNDAY
MORNING, BEFORE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DESTABILZATION WITH
1,000-1,500 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE AND CLOSE TO 1,000 J/KG OF
DCAPE. HOWEVER, POOR LAPSE RATES LOOK TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MORE ISOLATED WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN
CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, COOLER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION, WHICH WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MONDAY ENDS
UP CLOUDIER THAN FORECASTED GIVEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THOUGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 0Z THIS EVENING BEFORE RAIN
AND LOWER CIGS MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTH WHERE IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SE WINDS ALOFT AT AVP WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR LONGER EVEN AFTER THE RAIN MOVES IN BUT
A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE WEST AFTER AROUND 9Z WILL CAUSE IFR
CIGS. THERE IS ALSO SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT AVP.
ELM HAS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IF THE WINDS GO CALM
WITH THE RAIN FALLING SO LIFR IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO PUT IT AS PREDOMINANT OR TO TAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO
AIRPORT MINS IN THE TEMPO.
ITH WILL HAVE MVFR TO NEAR IFR CIGS WITH THE SE WINDS WHILE THE
WIND DIRECTION INCREASES CONFIDENCE OF IFR AT BGM OVERNIGHT. SYR
AND RME WILL BE ON THE NORTH END OF THE RAIN AND MAY NOT SEE
PERSISTENT MVFR OVERNIGHT BUT MAY TOMORROW AS FLOW SWITCHES TO
COME OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WITH FRONT TRYING TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/MWG
AVIATION...AJG
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