630
FXUS61 KBGM 121843
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
243 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WERE
INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE WYOMING VALLEY, PARTICULARLY THE
SCRANTON AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND
PARTS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
2) AFTER A RETURN TO DRY AND COOLER WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WARMER WEATHER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION, WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN INCREASING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
THE MOST CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND COUPLED
WITH A DECENT LLJ, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST PA-CATSKILLS.
LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TO BE
LOCATED SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST, PERHAPS RIGHT THROUGH THE
SCRANTON AREA. SINCE THIS IS A HEAVILY URBANIZED AREA, THIS IS
CURRENTLY WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
IS. THAT BEING SAID, WITH DRIER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND THE
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT, THE DECISION WAS
MADE AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH. A SHORTER-FUSED FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED
IF THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE RAINFALL SUNDAY
MORNING, BEFORE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO LOOK POOR AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, COOLER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION, WHICH WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 0Z THIS EVENING BEFORE RAIN
AND LOWER CIGS MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTH WHERE IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SE WINDS ALOFT AT AVP WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR LONGER EVEN AFTER THE RAIN MOVES IN BUT
A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE WEST AFTER AROUND 9Z WILL CAUSE IFR
CIGS. THERE IS ALSO SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT AVP.
ELM HAS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IF THE WINDS GO CALM
WITH THE RAIN FALLING SO LIFR IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO PUT IT AS PREDOMINANT OR TO TAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO
AIRPORT MINS IN THE TEMPO.
ITH WILL HAVE MVFR TO NEAR IFR CIGS WITH THE SE WINDS WHILE THE
WIND DIRECTION INCREASES CONFIDENCE OF IFR AT BGM OVERNIGHT. SYR
AND RME WILL BE ON THE NORTH END OF THE RAIN AND MAY NOT SEE
PERSISTENT MVFR OVERNIGHT BUT MAY TOMORROW AS FLOW SWITCHES TO
COME OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WITH FRONT TRYING TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...AJG
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