908
FXUS61 KBGM 130716
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
316 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHERE PERSISTENT HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRAINING; ACROSS EASTERN SUSQUEHANNA,
NORTHERN WAYNE AND WEST-CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTIES. THE RAINFALL
LOOKS TO LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE NY SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA,
PERHAPS INTO THE MID OR LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY. A STRIPE OF 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL SEEMS PROBABLE BY THE TIME THE RAIN ENDS LATE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING.
THEN, ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
BE STORMS THAT PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
2) DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. EXPECTED A WARMING TREND WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LATEST MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
SPINNING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. OUT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE THERE IS PLENTY OF LIFT AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
IS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND CENTRAL NY. THERE IS DEEP MOISTURE
EXTENDING UP AND ABOVE THE 700MB LAYER. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS EVIDENT ACROSS THIS SAME AREA AT 250MB TO 300MB. THERE
IS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
NORTHERN POCONOS. FURTHER BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THERE IS
MORE INSTABILITY PRESENT, WITH THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING
500J/KG OF MLCAPE UP TO HARRISBURG AND NEARLY STATE COLLEGE IN PA.
SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THIS
AREA, AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST; BECOMING MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH NE PA
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY. IT SEEMS WITH THIS STRONG LIFT AND
DIVERGENCE IN PLACE THAT PERIODS OF RAIN, SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND LIKELY EVEN INTO
THE MID OR LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS NE PA AND THE NY SOUTHERN
TIER....BEFORE COMPLETELY EXITING BEFORE NOON TODAY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TAKES A BLEND OF RADAR TRENDS, HRRR, 3KM NAM AND THE NBM
FOR HOURLY POPS THIS MORNING. QPF IS A BLEND OF WPC, NBM AND LATEST
OBSERVED TRENDS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW LOCALIZED STRIPES OF 1-
2, PERHAPS 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN BY THE TIME THE RAIN ENDS LATE THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE UNDER 1 INCH OF RAIN BY
NOON. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED AREAS WHERE PONDING OF WATER AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OCCUR. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AS WELL; AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY.
AFTER THE RAIN EXITS AND ENDS LATER THIS MORNING THERE SHOULD BE
SOME DRY TIME AND SKIES TURN PARTLY SUNNY. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID
TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID-70S TO LOW 80S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASES
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH
INCREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40-50 KTS. AS THE COLD FRONT
PRESSES SOUTH A SCATTERED LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...FIRST ACROSS THE NW FINGER LAKES AND SYRACUSE AREA...THEN
REACHING THE NY SOUTHERN TIER AND EVENTUALLY NE PA/CATSKILLS BY MID
TO LATE EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, GUSTY
TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN HAIL. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FOR JUST
ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO
AROUND +4C BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 8-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED UP TO 825MB. DESPITE SKIES BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH
THE LOW TO MID-60S ACROSS CENTRAL NY...WITH MID-60S TO AROUND 70 IN
NE PA. MONDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG IN THE
FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPING AS
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTIONS BEGINS OVERNIGHT AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISE BACK TO +8C BY SUNRISE. A 1028MB SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, HELPING TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS VERY LIGHT. EXPECT VERY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID-40S IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER
SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE MID-30S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY FEATURES AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS UP IN THE MID-70S. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 8-15 MPH,
WHICH WILL HELP TO BOOST THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY, WHICH
WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL BY
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP THE WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND BUT BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST US BY FRIDAY, AS THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL START A
COOLING TREND FOR OUR AREA, WITH STILL A CHANCE FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH SOME SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY, THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER NEXT
SUNDAY. OFFICIAL FORECAST STUCK VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD AS EXACT DETAILS REMAIN TO BE SEEN.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RAIN SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO
FALL TO MVFR TO IFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR MOST SITES. AVP
IS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE RAIN AND IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE
LONGER BEFORE IT REACHES THE TERMINAL AND THE SE WINDS ALOFT
WILL PREVENT IFR UNTIL THE WINDS SHIFT CLOSER TO 9Z.
ELM HAS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IF THE WINDS GO CALM
WITH THE RAIN FALLING SO LIFR IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO PUT IT AS PREDOMINANT OR TO TAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO
AIRPORT MINS IN THE TEMPO.
ITH WILL HAVE MVFR TO NEAR IFR CIGS WITH THE SE WINDS WHILE THE
WIND DIRECTION INCREASES CONFIDENCE OF IFR AT BGM OVERNIGHT. SYR
AND RME WILL BE ON THE NORTH END OF THE RAIN AND MAY NOT SEE
PERSISTENT MVFR OVERNIGHT BUT MAY TOMORROW AS FLOW SWITCHES TO
COME OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT, BUT COVERAGE AND
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THEREFORE PROB30 GROUPS WERE USED AT THIS
TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WITH FRONT TRYING TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...AJG/ES
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