019
FXUS61 KBGM 140519
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
119 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY THIS EVENING AS
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING INCREASING STORM COVERAGE OVER
THE NW FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER REGIONS. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A LINE OF STORMS AND
APPROACH THE I-81 CORRIDOR OF THE TWIN TIERS AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS BY SUNSET. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THREAT ENDS BY 8-10 PM THIS EVENING
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
2) COOLER, FALL LIKE PATTERN RETURNS EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE A
GRADUAL WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSETTLED LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE SCATTERED OUT A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST SO TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKER. THIS HAS ALLOWED
HIGHER VALUES OF SURFACE BASED CAPE TO DEVELOP ALREADY, WITH
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG IN WESTERN NY ALREADY. STORMS THAT
HAVE FORMED SOUTH OF THE LAKE HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES SO FAR DESPITE 40 TO 45 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR BUT THAT
MAY BE BECAUSE OF SOME MID LEVEL STABILITY. CONTINUED DAY TIME
HEATING OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER. HODOGRAPHS ARE FAIRLY
STRAIT SO THAT WOULD MAINLY SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
WITH THE DRY AIR ALOFT, TEMPERATURES COOL QUICKLY TOWARDS
SUNSET SO STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED AND WEAKEN
AFTER 7 PM AS THE SURFACE INSTABILITY WANES. THE FINGER LAKES
REGION HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY.
NEPA WILL HAVE THE FRONT PASSAGE TOO LATE AT NIGHT SO WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE, IT WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TOMORROW WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS SINCE MAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALL DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO SUBSIDE QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TOMORROW NIGHT. LOWS WERE LOWERED BELOW NBM WITH SOME
AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS AND TUG HILL FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
IF DEW POINTS CAN MIX LOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THERE IS A LOW
POTENTIAL (<10%) OF PATCHY FROST IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES BACK IN WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
BEING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A RIDGE MEANS THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEAL WITH LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVES PROPAGATE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST FOG AT ELM EARLY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. A TEMPO GROUP WAS
INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG
SHOULD WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS GUST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
FRIDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RECENT PASSING OF
A FRONT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG/MJM
AVIATION...BTL/ES
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