976
FXUS61 KBGM 141028
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
628 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS TODAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING
UP TO 25 MPH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
UNDER THE NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, AS OTHER BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID-40S UNDER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING THE FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE, INCREASING
HEIGHTS, THICKNESSES AND A STEADY SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. VERY COOL
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY FOG UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
2) A WARM UP BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
IT STARTS OFF DRY OR MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY.
3) SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH A
FEW FRONTAL SYSTEMS NEARBY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND IT WILL
BE THROUGH NE PA BEFORE SUNRISE. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AND BECOME
BREEZY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO
AROUND +5C BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SEE DEEP
MIXING UP TO 800MB. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OFF
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE FINGER LAKES. AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY
TURN MOSTLY SUNNY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 8-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 20-
25 MPH EXPECTED...A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ANY EXPOSED HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS (SUCH AS THE POCONO
PLATEAU OF NE PA). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL, ONLY REACHING
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND SETTLES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT, RISING TO 1028 MB OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID-40S UNDER A STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION (850MB TEMPS RISE TO +9C
OVERNIGHT). A FEW OF THE COLDER SPOTS COULD REACH THE MID-30S, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON ANY FROST FORMATION REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A COOL START TUESDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH VALLEY FOG, IT WILL
WARM UP NICELY UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
MARINE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW OFF TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. EXPECT
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, DRY WEATHER AND A LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGE, AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY, AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES REACH +14.5C. CAN'T RULE OUR A STRAY SHOWER OR T'STORM
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
OVER THE AREA. FORCING WILL BE EXTREMELY WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THE MAIN DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO THE RISING UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. WHILE THE TRUE CORE OF HEAT REMAINS
WELL OFF TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION, OUR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR MID SEPTEMBER. THE WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT
APPROACH. THIS SETUP WILL BRING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND TEMPERATURES AROUND
80 DEGREES. WITH ALL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND SKIES ARE LIKELY
TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
KEY MESSAGE 3....
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WEST. THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY, WITH
GRADUALLY FALLING HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL. SEVERAL FRONT AND WAVES
MAY RIDE ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, KEEPING SHOWER
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS, ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING.
GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME FOG AT ELM AND RME TONIGHT, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
FRIDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RECENT PASSING OF
A FRONT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...ES
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