408
FXUS61 KBGM 141853
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
253 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING
INTO MID WEEK.
2) THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN IN THE EASTERN US WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING IN TODAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. DEW POINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO LOW 40S WHICH WILL LIKELY MATCH THE LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WERE
LOWERED BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE TO MATCH CLOSE TO WHAT THE CURRENT
DEW POINTS ARE READING. IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET A FEW AREAS OF
PATCHY FROST, MAINLY IN NORTHERN ONEIDA AND IN A FEW ELEVATED
VALLEYS OF DELAWARE AND OTSEGO COUNTIES. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS TOMORROW AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH A
GRADUAL WARM UP EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING OUT THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH QUICK ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE MANY WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH OVER THE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND SO RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO MAJOR SHORTWAVE AND NOT
A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THESE WEAKER WAVES TO WORK WITH,
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WASH OUT OR AN ALL
DAY RAIN BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED THURSDAY
AS WELL AS THIS WEEKEND. THURSDAY MAY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE AT
SOME STRONGER STORMS AS WELL AS SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AND SOME
OF THE MODELED FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HAVE SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. RIGHT NOW INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS
(AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY). THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE
AT KELM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE USUAL
MORNING VALLEY FOG LIKELY RESULTING IN IFR-OR-WORSE VISBY
RESTRICTIONS. KRME MAY ALSO BRIEFLY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF THERE AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20KTS) THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG/MJM
AVIATION...BJG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page