680
FXUS61 KBGM 142318
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
718 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE REGION DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING
INTO MID WEEK.
2) THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN IN THE EASTERN US WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING IN TODAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. DEW POINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO LOW 40S WHICH WILL LIKELY MATCH THE LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WERE
LOWERED BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE TO MATCH CLOSE TO WHAT THE CURRENT
DEW POINTS ARE READING. IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET A FEW AREAS OF
PATCHY FROST, MAINLY IN NORTHERN ONEIDA AND IN A FEW ELEVATED
VALLEYS OF DELAWARE AND OTSEGO COUNTIES. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS TOMORROW AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH A
GRADUAL WARM UP EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING OUT THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH QUICK ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE MANY WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH OVER THE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND SO RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO MAJOR SHORTWAVE AND NOT
A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THESE WEAKER WAVES TO WORK WITH,
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WASH OUT OR AN ALL
DAY RAIN BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED THURSDAY
AS WELL AS THIS WEEKEND. THURSDAY MAY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE AT
SOME STRONGER STORMS AS WELL AS SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AND SOME
OF THE MODELED FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HAVE SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY. RIGHT NOW INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THIS TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG AT ELM. IFR TO LIFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOG MAY LIFT OUT AND IMPACT BGM
BRIEFLY AROUND DAYBREAK. LITTLE GUIDANCE HAD FOG AT RME, THOUGH
IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. BEGINNING AROUND THE MID MORNING HOURS, SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTY. PEAK GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS
LIGHTER AT AVP TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG/MJM
AVIATION...BTL
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