836
FXUS61 KBGM 150447
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1247 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. ADDED IN
SOME POPS FOR A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
WEAKENING WARM FRONT RUNS INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE;
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT IF IT DOES OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE REGION MAINLY DRY AND
GRADUALLY WARMING INTO MID WEEK.
2) THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN IN THE EASTERN US WITH A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
IN THE FORECAST.
3) DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
TURNS NORTHERLY AND PUSHES THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. IT THEN TURNS MORE ACTIVE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG AS THE
1028MB SURFACE HIGH SITS OVERHEAD. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY,
WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN SOUTH AND INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY,
BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS EVENING AT 8-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH
OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. AFTER THE COOL
START IT SHOULD WARM UP NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND THE REGION.
A DECAYING WARM FRONT TRIES TO PRESS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT RUNS
INTO THE MASSIVE 594DM RIDGE OVER THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT SOME MORE CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
NY SOUTHERN TIER. MOST OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS WELL, BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWERS ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL
BE MORE CLOUDS NORTH AND MORE SUN SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY,
EVENTUALLY TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID-70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS
THE AREA, AND HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE BY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70 EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. PWATS WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, BETWEEN
1.75 TO 1.95 INCHES OVER THE AREA, THIS IS ABOUT 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SETUP WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND A LOW RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE DOES REMAIN
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
ON THURSDAY, SO THIS WILL IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION; WHICH IF IT DOES MATERIALIZE COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
EVEN HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. THE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS. OTHERWISE, THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
CLOUDY, AND VERY HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO LOW 80S AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TOWARD THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THIS WILL TURN WINDS NORTHERLY FOR
OUR AREA, AND BRING IN A DRIER AIR MASS. THE NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
NOW HAS FRIDAY COMPLETELY DRY, AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LOW HUMIDITY
AND SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. MOST OF SATURDAY ALSO
LOOKS DRY IN THE LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA, BUT A LATE DAY WARM FRONT
COULD BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NY. TEMPERATURES TREND DOWN A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO FRIDAY.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS ALSO STARTING TO COME TOGETHER ON A MORE
CONSISTENT SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A
SERIES OF LOWS AND WAVES MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP MORE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...BUT COULD
LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOES TRY TO MOVE BACK IN
FROM THE NORTH BY NEXT TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE SEASONABLY COOL IN THE TIME PERIOD, WITH LOW TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY
FADING INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN POTENTIALLY FALLING
BACK INTO THE 40S MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THIS TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG AT ELM. IFR TO LIFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOG MAY LIFT OUT AND IMPACT BGM
BRIEFLY AROUND DAYBREAK. LITTLE GUIDANCE HAD FOG AT RME, THOUGH
IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. BEGINNING AROUND THE MID MORNING HOURS, SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONGER AND GUSTY. PEAK GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS
LIGHTER AT AVP TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...BTL
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