665
FXUS61 KBGM 151859
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
259 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
WITH A MORE POTENT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN WITH A FEW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR A STALLING FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BRING MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WE HAVE
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WHILE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WAS
ORIGINALLY LOOKING DRIER, WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. CAMS HAVE PICKED UP ON MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY SO
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE INCREASED OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
TOMORROW, PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CREEP ABOVE 1.5 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS THAT DO FORM ALONG THE FRONT WILL HAVE
HEAVY RAIN. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS EARLY IN THE DAY PRIOR TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CAPE DEVELOPMENT BUT IF THE FRONT CAN TREND LATER,
THERE COULD BE A LOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK WITH GREATER THAN
30 KNOTS OF SHEAR IN PLACE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FRIDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST WITH SOME HINTS AT A WEAK
SURFACE LOW FORMING IN THE GULF. THIS WILL HELP WITH MOISTURE
RETURNING TO OUR REGION. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A TROUGH
TRYING TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST US, A CONVERGENCE ZONE/STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FORM FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE THE LOCATION OF THIS STALLED BOUNDARY IS STILL
UNCERTAIN, MANY OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE TICKED UPWARDS
WITH THEIR ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DETERMINISTIC AND
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CONSISTENT WITH UP TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER SEVERAL DAYS WHERE THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE EVENTUALLY
SETS UP.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
FOR ALL TERMINALS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME VERY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE ISSUE IS VERY DRY AIR WILL BE NEAR THE
SURFACE SO IF ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP, THEY MORE THAN LIKELY
WILL NOT HIT THE GROUND. IF THEY DO, IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
IF RAIN HAPPENS TO FALL AT ELM THIS EVENING, THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH SOME BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS. WINDS LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG
AT AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOG TO GENERATE SO
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT WE WILL SEE RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP.
BECAUSE OF THIS, THE ELM TAF WAS KEPT AT VFR.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...JTC
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