451
FXUS61 KBGM 152334
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
734 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
WITH A MORE POTENT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN WITH A FEW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) WATCHING POTENTIAL FOR A STALLING FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BRING MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WE HAVE
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WHILE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WAS
ORIGINALLY LOOKING DRIER, WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. CAMS HAVE PICKED UP ON MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY SO
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE INCREASED OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
TOMORROW, PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CREEP ABOVE 1.5 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS THAT DO FORM ALONG THE FRONT WILL HAVE
HEAVY RAIN. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS EARLY IN THE DAY PRIOR TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CAPE DEVELOPMENT BUT IF THE FRONT CAN TREND LATER,
THERE COULD BE A LOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK WITH GREATER THAN
30 KNOTS OF SHEAR IN PLACE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FRIDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST WITH SOME HINTS AT A WEAK
SURFACE LOW FORMING IN THE GULF. THIS WILL HELP WITH MOISTURE
RETURNING TO OUR REGION. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A TROUGH
TRYING TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST US, A CONVERGENCE ZONE/STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FORM FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE THE LOCATION OF THIS STALLED BOUNDARY IS STILL
UNCERTAIN, MANY OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE TICKED UPWARDS
WITH THEIR ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DETERMINISTIC AND
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CONSISTENT WITH UP TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER SEVERAL DAYS WHERE THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE EVENTUALLY
SETS UP.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT (03-09Z). THE ISSUE IS VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
NEAR THE SURFACE SO IF ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP, THEY MORE THAN
LIKELY WILL NOT LOWER CIGS OR VSBYS MUCH, IF AT ALL...SO WE ARE
MAINLY EXPECTING VFR SHOWERS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF
THE SHOWERS ON RADAR WILL END UP NOT REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO
THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE.
IF RAIN HAPPENS TO FALL AT ELM LATE THIS EVENING, THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING;
BUT WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW CHANCE TO OCCUR.
WINDS LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG AT AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO
ALLOW FOG TO GENERATE SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT WE WILL SEE
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE ELM TAF WAS KEPT AT
VFR. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH (THEN STALLS) THERE WILL BE
SOME BORDERLINE LLWS NEAR ELM AND ITH; IT WAS NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ELM/ITH LATE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 KTS
THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST, AND
EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY; UNDER 10 KTS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
BKN CIGS COULD LOWER DOWN BETWEEN 030-045 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON AT OUR CENTRAL NY TAF TERMINALS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF ELM AND BGM, BUT NORTH OF AVP;
WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE ON THESE CLOSELY FOR
FUTURE TAF UPDATES.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOP.
THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...JTC/MJM
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