607
FXUS61 KBGM 302317
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
717 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING IN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY. INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
2) NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK HELPING FALL WEATHER RETURN TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FLATTENING OUT TODAY WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING ZONAL AND LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT,
WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG IT, MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NY INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB
WARMS TO AROUND 15C TO 18C WHICH WILL SUPPORT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVING IN, CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HOW WARM IT COULD GET
THURSDAY BUT IF WE CAN GET A FEW HOURS OF SUN, THEN A FEW
POCKETS OF 80 DEGREES IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN NEPA OR ALONG THE
NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR. FRIDAY WILL HAVE A FRONT DROPPING IN FROM
THE NW WITH SHOWERS SPREADING IN. NEPA MAY SEE MORE SUN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH RAIN NOT ARRIVING TILL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY IN PLACE DESPITE THE LATE
SEASON WARMTH, AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT SO THUNDERSTORMS LOOK UNLIKELY FRIDAY BUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND
LIGHTER STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A HALF INCH OR LESS SO FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
A CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A LONG WAVE TROUGH TRIES TO
SET UP IN THE NORTHEAST US. THERE IS A COUPLE CHANCES OF 850 MB
TEMPS FALLING BELOW 0C EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ALSO GOOD
CHANCES OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEING IN PLACE AS WELL SO THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IS POSSIBLE IF SKIES CAN REMAIN
CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING AND
BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS, WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM
DEVELOPING, SO IT HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY..SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NY,
WHICH MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...KL
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