272
FXUS61 KBGM 011807
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
207 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS INCREASED ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS MORNING
DUE TO A WARM FRONT PASSAGE. OTHERWISE, MINIMAL CHANGES WERE
MADE WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY.
2) A SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH MAY BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 88 ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT IS BRINGING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING, MOST CONCENTRATED AROUND THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND MOSTLY BE NORTH OF
THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID, A FEW ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG AND NORTH THE NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR.
OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER STANDARDS, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S. RIGHT NOW THE EXPECTATION IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL
BE MAINLY CLOUDY, BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THIS CLEARING HAPPENS EARLIER, THEN TEMPERATURES
COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED AND SOME OF THE WARMER
VALLEYS COULD REACH 80 DEGREES.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. INSTABILITY WILL
BE LACKING, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL VARY, DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88, THE
EARLIER COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S.
HOWEVER, FARTHER SOUTH (NORTHEAST PA TO THE CATSKILLS), THE
LATER COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S, AND PERHAPS NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE WYOMING VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FANTASTIC FALL-WEATHER TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S) AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
ON SUNDAY, OUR REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND A TROUGH DIPPING DOWN
FROM CANADA. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA, BUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO NORTHEAST
PA-CATSKILLS FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE INFLUENCE FROM A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH DIPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA BECOMES MORE APPARENT. WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY IN PLACE, THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE IS POSSIBLE IF SKIES CAN REMAIN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AFTER A WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY, A TEMPORARY
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED IN AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH DEVELOPING RAIN AND
LOWERING CEILINGS AT LEAST FOR THE NY TERMINALS. KAVP WILL
EVENTUALLY HAVE RESTRICTIONS TOO BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY WAIT
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 35-40 KNOTS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NY TERMINALS OVERNIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT SLIPS THROUGH. THE FRONT
WILL BE SHALLOW IN NATURE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH IT,
CAUSING FUEL ALTERNATE REQUIRED TO IFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR AS
POST-FRONTAL WIND ALSO VEERS TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT...COLD FRONT FINISHES PASSING,
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND INITIAL CEILING RESTRICTIONS SCATTERING
TO VFR. HOWEVER, VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST KELM AND
POSSIBLY OTHER TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH VALLEY FOG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...MDP
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