754
FXUS61 KBGM 020633
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
233 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY.
2) A SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH MAY BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY, WHICH WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING, SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL VARY DEPENDING ON LOCATION. FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88, THE EARLIER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER, FARTHER
SOUTH (NORTHEAST PA TO THE CATSKILLS), THE LATER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S, AND
PERHAPS NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE WYOMING VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FANTASTIC FALL-WEATHER TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S) AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
ON SUNDAY, OUR REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND A TROUGH DIPPING DOWN
FROM CANADA. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA, BUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO NORTHEAST
PA FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE INFLUENCE FROM A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH DIPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA BECOMES MORE APPARENT. WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY IN PLACE, THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE IS POSSIBLE IF SKIES CAN REMAIN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED FOR MOST OF THE AREA (EXCEPT SOME OF THE
FINGER LAKES COUNTIES IN NY AND ALL OF NORTHEAST PA). SO ANY
POTENTIAL FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS WOULD ONLY
BE ISSUED FOR THE REMAINING ACTIVE AREAS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH POTENTIAL
FOR CEILINGS TO FALL TO MVFR AS SHOWERS START TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. SOME MARGINAL LLWS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL,
BUT SURFACE WINDS PICK UP BY MID MORNING AND LLWS IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED TO POSE ANY ISSUES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR LLWS IS AT
ELM, SO THAT IS ONLY FORECAST SITE WHERE IT IS INCLUDED AT THIS
TIME.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING SHOWERS SPREAD FURTHER ACROSS THE REGION
WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS AT CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH VALLEY FOG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...ES/MPK
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