096
FXUS61 KBGM 021800
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE A
BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
THEREFORE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY.
2) A SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH MAY BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY, WHICH WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING, SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL VARY DEPENDING ON LOCATION. FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88, THE EARLIER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S. HOWEVER, FARTHER
SOUTH (NORTHEAST PA TO THE CATSKILLS), THE LATER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S, AND
PERHAPS NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE WYOMING VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FANTASTIC FALL-WEATHER TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S) AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
ON SUNDAY, OUR REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND A TROUGH DIPPING DOWN
FROM CANADA. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA, BUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO NORTHEAST
PA FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE INFLUENCE FROM A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH DIPPING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA BECOMES MORE APPARENT. WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY IN PLACE, THE FIRST WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE IS POSSIBLE IF SKIES CAN REMAIN CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED FOR MOST OF THE AREA (EXCEPT SOME OF THE
FINGER LAKES COUNTIES IN NY AND ALL OF NORTHEAST PA). SO ANY
POTENTIAL FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS WOULD ONLY
BE ISSUED FOR THE REMAINING ACTIVE AREAS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR IS ONGOING WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY DECREASING WITH
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN WESTERN NY BACK TO VFR. ONCE THE FRONT
IS THROUGH BY 20 TO 23Z, DRY AIR WILL LIKELY HELP TERMINALS
RETURN TO VFR BY 0Z.
TONIGHT, ELM HAS A CHANCE AT SOME FOG IF THE WINDS CAN BECOME
CALM. A TEMPO HAS BEEN USED FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
WINDS WILL BE CALM LONG ENOUGH TO GET PERSISTENT FOG.
TOMORROW HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WITH VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WENDESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH VALLEY
FOG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...AJG
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