601
FXUS61 KBGM 021902
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR OBSERVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEKEND.
2) A TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
INTO THE CATSKILLS AND NORTH TO ONEIDA COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AND BRING DRY AND
COOLER CONDITION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY TO THE CATSKILLS.
THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH TEMPERATURES OF 80 DEGREES IN SCRANTON
WHILE IT IS 61 DEGREES IN BINGHAMTON. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ANAFRONTAL AND HAS BECOME LIGHTER AS THE AFTERNOON HAS
PROGRESSED. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH NEPA AND THE
CATSKILLS INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT. WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, SOME VERY LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-81 NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THESE SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST CUTS THEM OFF. THE SURFACE
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT, KEEPING WINDS NWERLY AND REINFORCING CAA. TEMPS
WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES COOLER TONIGHT VS. LAST NIGHT, WITH TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WITH
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS N ONEIDA COUNTY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY AS A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN US ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY; ONE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER ONE MOVING UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THESE TWO SHORTWAVES IN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGH
PATTERN ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF PHASE, WHICH
WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION AND BRING A
LOW END CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO PHASE WELL EAST OF US SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
GENERATING A SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THAT WILL
PUSH INTO CANADA. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES SO CONFIDENCE
IS BECOMING HIGHER THAT WE WILL NOT SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOP
ON SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. TEMPS AT
850MB NEAR 0C COMBINED WITH VERY WARM LAKE AMERICA WATER TEMPS
WILL KICK OFF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TO
START THE WEEK WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THE
POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL REINFORCE CAA AND PUSH THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON INTO THE REGION. AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF OCTOBER RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN OUR AREA.
ON MONDAY, WE ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST,
WITH LOW 60S IN THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NEPA
AND THE CATSKILLS. TUESDAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S BOTH
NIGHTS(TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER). WITH SOME AREAS
EXPECTED TO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT,
TAKE APPROPRIATE MEASURES WITH WHAT REMAINS OF YOUR GARDEN OR
ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS THAT MAY BE OUTSIDE.
BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA,
BRINGING A RETURN OF SW FLOW. THIS WILL START A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR IS ONGOING WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY DECREASING WITH
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN WESTERN NY BACK TO VFR. ONCE THE FRONT
IS THROUGH BY 20 TO 23Z, DRY AIR WILL LIKELY HELP TERMINALS
RETURN TO VFR BY 0Z.
TONIGHT, ELM HAS A CHANCE AT SOME FOG IF THE WINDS CAN BECOME
CALM. A TEMPO HAS BEEN USED FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
WINDS WILL BE CALM LONG ENOUGH TO GET PERSISTENT FOG.
TOMORROW HAS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WITH VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WENDESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH VALLEY
FOG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...AJG
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